Last week two events happened in different parts of the world and I have been debating with myself, which one of them might be more important for anyone concerned with doing business on the earth: Crimea or China.
In Eastern Europe, Russian troops have surreptitiously occupied the autonomous region of Crimea and the province’ is heading for a referendum which will pave the way for its annexation by Russia. On the other side of the world, China’s premier Li Keqiang says his government will declare war against pollution.
While apparently unrelated what is common about both situations is the clarity and simplicity of the official reports and their coverage in the press and the deep complexity of both situations.
Costs for Russia
In a speech on Friday shown above, President Obama, re-iterated his calls for Russia to withdraw its forces from Crimea and to establish negotiations with the Ukrainian Government in Kiev. He makes clear in his words that there will be “costs” for Russia if it does not comply. The problem is that the Russian Government does not even acknowledge that the troops in Crimea are theirs and refuses to accept the legitimacy of the Government in Kiev.
Russia has managed to get an obscure, politician, Sergey Aksyonov named Prime Minister of the province in an emergency session of its legislature last week, and he will push ahead with the referendum with the support of the mysterious troops.
As discussed last week, the history of Crimea is complex and the cultural and political make up of its population is not as simply as the results of the 2001 census would indicate. Similarly, what President Obama is not discussing in his news conference is the scheduled presence of the USS George W.H. Bush, a Nimitz class Aircraft Carrier and its associated Battle Group in Greece and that it could be sent through the Bosphorus in support of Ukraine.
If the Crimean war of 1853 is any guide, then the only “Costs” Russia will understand is a credible threat to sink the Black Sea Fleet and occupy Sebastopol!
Pollution in China
Readers of these blog posts will recall a series of posts concerning the critical situation of air pollution in China. Reuters points out that the air pollution issue is more than just the devastating smog and is apparently skeptical of China’s resolve.
My own view is that one of the only opportunities for China to improve the situation is to relocate its power plants farther away form its major cities and to massively support electric vehicles. While this idea might help local air pollution, it will most likely not have much, if any, impact on climate change due to China’s energy mix. In a column, Bjorn Lumborg actually calculated that Electric Vehicles would make the situation worse by requiring even more electricity near China’s major cities!
Get Real, Please!
Besides their inherent complexity, the reason I think both issues are linked is that much of what politicians are saying about them are naive at best. It is, for example, hard to imagine that Western Europe and the United States would risk war with Russia over Crimea or even Eastern Ukraine. It is even harder to imagine that China’s ruling elite would risk slowing down the Chinese Economy to curb air pollution.