{"id":1681,"date":"2016-10-20T11:02:35","date_gmt":"2016-10-20T10:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/?p=1681"},"modified":"2016-10-26T14:55:50","modified_gmt":"2016-10-26T13:55:50","slug":"is-there-hope-for-nigerias-growth-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/2016\/10\/20\/is-there-hope-for-nigerias-growth-story\/","title":{"rendered":"Is There Hope for Nigeria\u2019s Growth Story?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A couple of years ago Nigerians were in celebration mood: <strong>Nigeria had been declared the largest economy in the continent<\/strong>, surpassing South Africa. They love being ahead of South Africa even if in soccer competitions \u2013 you can imagine when it comes to economic strength! However, <strong>Nigeria\u2019s growth has slowed down. Is there still hope for a growth story?<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1692\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1692\" style=\"width: 744px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1692 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/files\/2016\/10\/ne.jpg\" width=\"744\" height=\"773\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/files\/2016\/10\/ne.jpg 744w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/files\/2016\/10\/ne-289x300.jpg 289w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/files\/2016\/10\/ne-481x500.jpg 481w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 744px) 100vw, 744px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1692\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Consumer products &#8212; on the rise in Nigeria!<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Last week, I <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/2016\/10\/13\/africa-rising-no-question\/\">commented<\/a> on African countries considered as \u201cstable growers\u201d\u00a0<strong>in McKinsey\u2019s recent <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/global-themes\/middle-east-and-africa\/realizing-the-potential-of-africas-economies\" target=\"_blank\">report<\/a> on the potential of African economies<\/strong>. <strong>Nigeria is not in that list<\/strong>. Instead, it\u2019s been classified as a \u201c<strong>vulnerable grower<\/strong>.\u201d Their 2010-2015 average GDP growth rate is still higher than the global average (4.7 % vs. 2.9 %). However, <strong>Nigeria\u2019s economy is decelerating from 10 % GDP growth rate in 2010 to 2.7% in 2015<\/strong>. In terms of McKinsey\u2019s African Stability Index, the country ranks 22 out of 53.<\/p>\n<p>This should be no surprise. On the one hand, <strong>Nigeria\u2019s high dependence on oil exports explains its deceleration<\/strong>. On the other hand, the country is not characterized by high levels of security and high quality governance.<\/p>\n<p>Yet, there is hope for Nigeria\u2019s growth story. Some data McKinsey provides:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>It will remain the region\u2019s single <strong>largest consumer market<\/strong>, accounting for 15 percent of overall growth in consumer spending to 2025.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Consumer spending increased<\/strong> from $ 237 billion in 2005 to 369 in 2015 \u2013 that\u2019s a 56 % hike! &#8212; and it\u2019s expected to keep rising up to 454 in 2020.<\/li>\n<li>The biggest spending categories will be food and beverages, housing, consumer goods, education, and transportation services.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cities are the largest consumer markets<\/strong>, and not just in absolute terms: per capita consumption in Abuja, Ibadan, Lagos, and Port Harcourt is more than double the national average<\/li>\n<li><strong>E-commerce has doubled each year since 2010<\/strong> and it already reached a total value of 4 billion dollars in 2013.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These data look promising, don\u2019t they? But <strong>macro figures may hide very different realities<\/strong>. These figures may mix consumerism by high-income groups with lack of access to basic goods for a large part of the population. <strong>I hope that companies tap consumer markets in ways that make these goods affordable to increasingly more people<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Any thoughts?<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Related articles:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/2016\/10\/13\/africa-rising-no-question\/\">Africa rising: no question!<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/2016\/05\/04\/agenda-2063-iv-a-commodities-strategy\/\" target=\"_blank\">Agenda 2063 (IV): A Commodities Strategy<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/2016\/01\/27\/the-4th-industrial-revolution-threat-or-opportunity\/\">The 4th Industrial Revolution: Threat or Opportunity?<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A couple of years ago Nigerians were in celebration mood: Nigeria had been declared the largest economy in the continent, surpassing South Africa. They love being ahead of South Africa even if in soccer competitions \u2013 you can imagine when it comes to economic strength! However, Nigeria\u2019s growth has slowed down. Is there still hope [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1654,"featured_media":1692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[99314],"tags":[100244,12541,100241,1080,1097,100242,100243],"class_list":["post-1681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-social-and-institutional-context","tag-african-stability-index","tag-consumer-goods","tag-mckinsey-report","tag-nigeria","tag-oil-prices","tag-stable-grower","tag-vulnerable-grower","megacategoria-mc-africa"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1654"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1681"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1681\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1697,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1681\/revisions\/1697"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/africa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}