{"id":1726,"date":"2012-01-25T11:06:27","date_gmt":"2012-01-25T10:06:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/?p=1726"},"modified":"2012-01-25T11:06:27","modified_gmt":"2012-01-25T10:06:27","slug":"los-economistas-no-nos-equivocamos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/2012\/01\/25\/los-economistas-no-nos-equivocamos\/","title":{"rendered":"Los economistas no nos equivocamos"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Lo digo en serio: no nos equivocamos.<\/p>\n<p>Cuando yo era (m\u00e1s) joven, se contaba un chiste sobre el viejo 600. En la acera, una persona observa los intentos para poner en marcha un 600. El motor de arranque solo hace ruidos, pero no es eficaz. El curioso sentencia: \u00abNunca se pondr\u00e1 en marcha\u00bb. Al cabo de un rato de hacer ruido y nada m\u00e1s, el motor de arranque prende. Tosiendo y echando humo, el coche se pone en marcha. El observador concluye: \u00abAhora, no hay quien lo pare\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Ambas afirmaciones son ciertas,&#8230; <strong>con la informaci\u00f3n disponible<\/strong> hasta ese momento. Cualquier medio-experto en coches sab\u00eda que un 600 en aquellas condiciones no se pondr\u00eda en marcha. Por eso, la primera afirmaci\u00f3n era cierta o, el menos, altamente probable. Pero una vez que el motor arranca, ha llegado <strong>informaci\u00f3n nueva<\/strong>: \u00a1funciona! Por tanto, la segunda afirmaci\u00f3n tambi\u00e9n es cierta.<\/p>\n<p>Los <strong>economistas<\/strong>, incluyendo el Fondo Monetario Internacional y todos los organismos nacionales e internacionales, actuamos de esa manera. Por eso somos categ\u00f3ricos sobre la pr\u00f3xima <strong>recesi\u00f3n<\/strong>, el <strong>d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico<\/strong> creciente y el\u00a0<strong>paro<\/strong> que seguir\u00e1 subiendo. Hasta que llegue nueva informaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lo digo en serio: no nos equivocamos. Cuando yo era (m\u00e1s) joven, se contaba un chiste sobre el viejo 600. En la acera, una persona observa los intentos para poner en marcha un 600. El motor de arranque solo hace ruidos, pero no es eficaz. El curioso sentencia: \u00abNunca se pondr\u00e1 en marcha\u00bb. Al cabo [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":172,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11722],"tags":[40512,28221,39043],"class_list":["post-1726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","tag-fondo-monetario-internacional","tag-informacion","tag-previsiones"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lo digo en serio: no nos equivocamos. 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