{"id":4092,"date":"2013-04-11T14:45:35","date_gmt":"2013-04-11T13:45:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/?p=4092"},"modified":"2013-04-11T16:00:24","modified_gmt":"2013-04-11T15:00:24","slug":"la-crisis-se-ha-acabado","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/2013\/04\/11\/la-crisis-se-ha-acabado\/","title":{"rendered":"La crisis se ha acabado"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Esto es algo que he o\u00eddo esta ma\u00f1ana en una sesi\u00f3n del programa de continuidad del\u00a0<em>IESE<\/em> sobre \u00abCreando la empresa del 2020 y su entorno\u00bb, con mis colegas Pedro Videla, Alfredo Pastor y Xavier Vives. Se han dicho muchas cosas interesantes; he aqu\u00ed algunas ideas\u00a0con las que me he quedado:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>La <strong>recuperaci\u00f3n<\/strong> ya ha comenzado, al menos si contemplamos c\u00f3mo se ha llevado a cabo el <strong>ajuste<\/strong> del <strong>sector privado<\/strong> (y, con notable retraso, del <strong>sector p\u00fablico<\/strong>, que a\u00fan est\u00e1 a medio camino). El ajuste es patente en el terreno de los <strong>flujos<\/strong> (competitividad exterior, recuperaci\u00f3n del signo positivo de la balanza por cuenta corriente, reducci\u00f3n de las necesidades de financiaci\u00f3n de empresas y familias), pero no en el terreno de los <em><strong>stocks<\/strong><\/em> (el nivel de deuda sigue siendo demasiado alto, y su reducci\u00f3n es muy lenta). Hemos pagado por ello un precio muy elevado (en t\u00e9rminos de paro, por ejemplo, o de destrucci\u00f3n de empresas), pero hac\u00eda falta.<\/li>\n<li>Hay que cambiar el <em>chip<\/em>. Ya no podemos pensar en t\u00e9rminos de qu\u00e9 va a pasar con la <strong>recesi\u00f3n<\/strong>. Es la hora de pensar en la recuperaci\u00f3n \u2013y, por tanto, de pensar a largo plazo.<\/li>\n<li>La salida ser\u00e1 <strong>lenta<\/strong>, muy lenta, aunque alg\u00fan trimestre veamos un crecimiento algo mejor. La <strong>capacidad de crecimiento<\/strong> de la econom\u00eda espa\u00f1ola es ahora muy, muy limitada, porque no tenemos mecanismos de ajuste (como una pol\u00edtica fiscal com\u00fan europea, una elevada movilidad del trabajo, flexibilidad salarial o una\u00a0Uni\u00f3n Bancaria en la zona euro).<\/li>\n<li>No esperemos volver a lo que \u00e9ramos en 2007. Olvid\u00e9monos: aquello ya es historia. <strong>El futuro\u00a0(pr\u00f3ximo) ser\u00e1 mucho m\u00e1s parecido al presente (2013) que al pasado (2007).<\/strong> Lo raro no es la recesi\u00f3n actual, sino la \u00abfiesta\u00bb de la burbuja inmobiliaria, el exceso de cr\u00e9dito y la euforia de la entrada en el euro. Aquello\u00a0era un chute de esteroides, no un engorde natural.<\/li>\n<li>Por tanto, nuestro problema no es de <strong>demanda<\/strong>, sino de <strong>oferta<\/strong>. No es que nos compren poco, es que no estamos en condiciones de producir lo que ahora (subrayo <strong>ahora<\/strong>) podemos producir competitivamente.<\/li>\n<li>Por tanto, las <strong>reformas<\/strong> son ineludibles. La <strong>austeridad<\/strong> es parte del problema (falta de demanda), pero es tambi\u00e9n parte de la soluci\u00f3n (no podemos seguir con el nivel de deuda que tenemos), y requieren otras soluciones: las reformas.<\/li>\n<li>No\u00a0vale retrasar las decisiones. El futuro es hoy.<\/li>\n<li>Por tanto, las <strong>empresas<\/strong> no deben esperar\u00a0a ver qu\u00e9 pasa\u00a0para tomar decisiones de inversi\u00f3n: lo que pasa es lo que vemos ahora.<\/li>\n<li>Atenci\u00f3n a los <strong>problemas sociales<\/strong>. Son muy importantes para la sostenibilidad y la calidad de nuestro crecimiento.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Si tuviese que insistir en algo, ser\u00eda en la <strong>responsabilidad de las empresas para iniciar, cuanto antes, el cambio de ritmo.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Esto es algo que he o\u00eddo esta ma\u00f1ana en una sesi\u00f3n del programa de continuidad del\u00a0IESE sobre \u00abCreando la empresa del 2020 y su entorno\u00bb, con mis colegas Pedro Videla, Alfredo Pastor y Xavier Vives. Se han dicho muchas cosas interesantes; he aqu\u00ed algunas ideas\u00a0con las que me he quedado: La recuperaci\u00f3n ya ha comenzado, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":172,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11722],"tags":[162,23550,67661,12821,12823,16183],"class_list":["post-4092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","tag-crisis","tag-empresas","tag-problemas-sociales","tag-recesion","tag-recuperacion","tag-reformas"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La crisis se ha acabado y que cambiar el chip. Ya no podemos pensar en qu\u00e9 va a pasar con la recesi\u00f3n. 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