{"id":413,"date":"2011-04-09T09:53:27","date_gmt":"2011-04-09T08:53:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/?p=413"},"modified":"2011-04-09T09:53:27","modified_gmt":"2011-04-09T08:53:27","slug":"%c2%bfse-puede-volver-a-crecer-ahora","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/2011\/04\/09\/%c2%bfse-puede-volver-a-crecer-ahora\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfSe puede volver a crecer, ahora?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis, generalmente compartida por los expertos: <strong>no saldremos de \u00e9sta hasta que volvamos a crecer<\/strong>, porque no podremos resolvernuestros problemas de\u00a0falta de confianza, des\u00e1nimo generalizado, no creaci\u00f3n de empleo, no reducci\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico, falta de financiaci\u00f3n,&#8230; sin un aumento suficiente del producto interior bruto.<\/p>\n<p>Ant\u00edtesis, tambi\u00e9n ampliamente compartida: <strong>ahora no podemos crecer<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>El <strong>consumo <\/strong>no puede remontar, por la falta de creaci\u00f3n de empleo, el alto endeudamiento de las familias, la subida de los tipos de inter\u00e9s y de la inflaci\u00f3n y la falta de confianza de los consumidores.<\/li>\n<li>La <strong>vivienda <\/strong>no despegar\u00e1 durante bastante tiempo, por las mismas razones, m\u00e1s la falta de cr\u00e9dito y el alto stock de viviendas porvender.<\/li>\n<li>La <strong>inversi\u00f3n empresarial <\/strong>no puede crecer, por falta de demanda (excepto por el lado de la exportaci\u00f3n), falta de financiaci\u00f3n e incertidumbre a tope.<\/li>\n<li>El gobierno no tiene para <strong>gastar<\/strong>. Y si quiere practicar una pol\u00edtica fiscal expansiva, se enfrentar\u00e1 con la crisis de la deuda soberana, que agravar\u00e1 el problema.<\/li>\n<li>La <strong>exportaci\u00f3n <\/strong>depende de nosotros s\u00f3lo en parte. Y no es suficiente para sacarnos del agujero aunque, eso s\u00ed, contribuir\u00e1 a \u00abhacer bullir la olla\u00bb hasta que tengamos algo m\u00e1s que poner al fuego.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>S\u00edntesis: <strong>hemos de cambiar de manera de pensar<\/strong>. Si la demanda no es capaz de tirar de la econom\u00eda, la oferta debe ser capaz de empujarla. Oferta significa costes. Y no s\u00f3lo laborales, sino otros muchos costes: los de crear empresas, los fiscales, los de despido, los de la seguridad social, los de la falta de competencia en muchos sectores,&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Moraleja: <strong>es la hora de las reformas<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tesis, generalmente compartida por los expertos: no saldremos de \u00e9sta hasta que volvamos a crecer, porque no podremos resolvernuestros problemas de\u00a0falta de confianza, des\u00e1nimo generalizado, no creaci\u00f3n de empleo, no reducci\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico, falta de financiaci\u00f3n,&#8230; sin un aumento suficiente del producto interior bruto. Ant\u00edtesis, tambi\u00e9n ampliamente compartida: ahora no podemos crecer. El consumo [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":172,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11722],"tags":[16181,1588,16182,16183],"class_list":["post-413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","tag-demanda","tag-espana","tag-oferta","tag-reformas"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tesis, generalmente compartida por los expertos: no saldremos de \u00e9sta hasta que volvamos a crecer, porque no podremos resolvernuestros problemas de falta de confianza, des\u00e1nimo generalizado, no creaci\u00f3n de empleo, no reducci\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico, falta de financiaci\u00f3n,... sin un aumento suficiente del producto interior bruto. Ant\u00edtesis, tambi\u00e9n ampliamente compartida: ahora no podemos crecer. 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Ant\u00edtesis, tambi\u00e9n ampliamente compartida: ahora no podemos crecer. 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