{"id":4823,"date":"2013-08-27T12:00:40","date_gmt":"2013-08-27T11:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/?p=4823"},"modified":"2013-09-09T15:27:00","modified_gmt":"2013-09-09T14:27:00","slug":"crisis-en-los-paises-emergentes-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/2013\/08\/27\/crisis-en-los-paises-emergentes-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCrisis en los pa\u00edses emergentes? (II)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ayer escrib\u00ed sobre este tema (<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/2013\/08\/26\/crisis-en-los-paises-emergentes\/\" target=\"_blank\">aqu\u00ed<\/a>). Y pens\u00e9 que el lector pod\u00eda preguntarse: y, \u00bfpor qu\u00e9 se produce ahora una <strong>crisis<\/strong> en esos <strong>pa\u00edses emergentes<\/strong>? Y encontr\u00e9 una entrada en el blog de <strong>Zero Hedge<\/strong> (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2013-08-22\/why-asian-markets-are-collapsing-3-simple-charts\" target=\"_blank\">aqu\u00ed<\/a>, en ingl\u00e9s) que ofrece una explicaci\u00f3n sencilla.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Las <strong>empresas<\/strong> de los pa\u00edses emergentes, especialmente las de <strong>Asia<\/strong>,\u00a0est\u00e1n ahora fuertemente <strong>endeudadas<\/strong>. <strong>Cr\u00e9dito<\/strong> abundante a bajos <strong>tipos de inter\u00e9s<\/strong> y oportunidades de colocaci\u00f3n rentable han producido ese fen\u00f3meno. Y como todo lo que sube tiene que bajar (bueno,\u00a0todo no, pero s\u00ed muchas cosas), ahora toca\u00a0frenar el <strong>endeudamiento<\/strong>. El blog atribuye esa \u00abalegr\u00eda\u00bb a la lejan\u00eda de las \u00faltimas crisis en Asia: ya nadie se acuerda de lo mal que lo pasaron&#8230;<\/li>\n<li>Si las econom\u00edas siguen un <strong>movimiento c\u00edclico<\/strong>, ahora toca <strong>recesi\u00f3n<\/strong> en esos pa\u00edses (yo no\u00a0estar\u00eda tan seguro, pero lo dice el blog en cuesti\u00f3n). Despu\u00e9s de una recesi\u00f3n se recompone el <strong>balance<\/strong> de las empresas, se devuelve la <strong>deuda<\/strong> y se presta atenci\u00f3n sobre todo al \u00abcash\u00bb (por ejemplo, Espa\u00f1a hoy). En la fase de <strong>recuperaci\u00f3n<\/strong>, crecen los <strong>beneficios<\/strong> y el endeudamiento se reduce. En el auge, el endeudamiento se acelera y las empresas inician actividades <strong>especulativas<\/strong>. Y as\u00ed llegamos a la etapa de recesi\u00f3n.<\/li>\n<li>La tercera raz\u00f3n que ofrece <strong>Zero Hedge<\/strong> es que el <strong>crecimiento<\/strong> del PIB se est\u00e1 moderando en los pa\u00edses emergentes y el <strong>coste de financiaci\u00f3n<\/strong> (en t\u00e9rminos reales) est\u00e1 creciendo, lo que anticipa <strong>quiebras<\/strong> de empresas, deudas impagadas&#8230;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>La conclusi\u00f3n es que \u00ablos riesgos a la baja [o sea, riesgos de recesi\u00f3n] son m\u00e1s claros ahora en Asia, y est\u00e1n creciendo\u00bb. Para nosotros es una buen repaso de nuestra historia. El hombre es el \u00fanico animal que tropieza dos veces con la misma piedra, y que no es capaz de aprender de los errores de los dem\u00e1s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ayer escrib\u00ed sobre este tema (aqu\u00ed). Y pens\u00e9 que el lector pod\u00eda preguntarse: y, \u00bfpor qu\u00e9 se produce ahora una crisis en esos pa\u00edses emergentes? Y encontr\u00e9 una entrada en el blog de Zero Hedge (aqu\u00ed, en ingl\u00e9s) que ofrece una explicaci\u00f3n sencilla. Las empresas de los pa\u00edses emergentes, especialmente las de Asia,\u00a0est\u00e1n ahora fuertemente [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":172,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11722],"tags":[28245,162,12808],"class_list":["post-4823","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","tag-ciclo-economico","tag-crisis","tag-economias-emergentes"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El crecimiento del PIB se est\u00e1 moderando en los pa\u00edses emergentes y el coste de financiaci\u00f3n, creciendo, lo que anticipa quiebras de empresas, deudas impagadas...\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Antonio Argando\u00f1a\"\/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/2013\/08\/27\/crisis-en-los-paises-emergentes-ii\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 5.0.1.1\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Econom\u00eda y \u00c9tica - Blog de Antonio Argando\u00f1a\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfCrisis en los pa\u00edses emergentes? 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