{"id":584,"date":"2011-06-03T09:35:24","date_gmt":"2011-06-03T08:35:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/?p=584"},"modified":"2011-06-03T09:35:24","modified_gmt":"2011-06-03T08:35:24","slug":"las-tormentas-seguiran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/2011\/06\/03\/las-tormentas-seguiran\/","title":{"rendered":"Las tormentas seguir\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Nouriel Roubini<\/strong>, el gur\u00fa de la econom\u00eda, se pronuncia sobre los <strong>planes de \u00absalvamento\u00bb de la deuda griega<\/strong>. Copio debajo sus palabras en ingl\u00e9s. En definitiva, parece que la Uni\u00f3n Europea, el Banco Central Europeo y el Fondo Monetario Internacional se inclinan por <strong>poner m\u00e1s dinero en el rescate<\/strong>, en lugar de preferir una reestructuraci\u00f3n de la deuda (consistente en perdonar una parte del importe, alargar el plazo o reducir el inter\u00e9s que hay que pagar).<\/p>\n<p>La profec\u00eda de Roubini es clara: <strong>pan para hoy y hambre para ma\u00f1ana<\/strong>. Grecia seguir\u00e1 siendo insolvente (no puede, f\u00edsicamente, mantener estable el porcentaje de su deuda respecto del PIB), ninguna instituci\u00f3n financiera le prestar\u00e1 (salvo las tres mencionadas m\u00e1s arriba) y, al final, los otros acreedores de Grecia se encontrar\u00e1n con la sorpresa de que ellos tendr\u00e1n que sufrir el reajuste.<\/p>\n<p>Entre tanto, dos profec\u00edas m\u00e1s. Una: prestar a un pa\u00eds de la zona euro tiene garant\u00edas extraordinarias, de modo que,&#8230; vamos a aprovecharnos (es la tesis del <strong>riesgo moral<\/strong>, que Roubini menciona). Otra: los mercados seguir\u00e1n nerviosos, especialmente en 2013, cuando se acaba el plan de salvamento dise\u00f1ado hace unos meses. O sea, <strong>los mercados seguir\u00e1n d\u00e1ndonos sustos<\/strong>. Abr\u00f3chense los cinturones, por favor, porque en uno de estos baches Espa\u00f1a puede tener que acudir al salvamento organizado (?) por nuestros socios.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u00abIt now appears that the EU, ECB and IMF may be deciding to double down\u2014and next year triple down\u2014and throw more good money after plenty of bad to bail out Greece\u2019s reckless creditors rather than opt for an orderly bail in (via an orderly debt restructuring). This is option 6 in our <a title=\"blocked::http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/trkr\/?c=444&amp;g=8578&amp;u=c11c965128d237c65d853c1ddde989fa&amp;p=011abb0abc23cbeb1adc1006ecb0c40c&amp;t=1\" href=\"http:\/\/clicks.skem1.com\/trkr\/?c=444&amp;g=8578&amp;u=c11c965128d237c65d853c1ddde989fa&amp;p=011abb0abc23cbeb1adc1006ecb0c40c&amp;t=1\">menu of options<\/a> for debt restructuring of Greece\u2014the mother of all bailouts and the mother of all moral hazard play.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\">The cost of pretending to contain contagion in the short run to avoid an orderly debt workout will be a disorderly workout and massive contagion in 2013 or after. As senior creditors like the troika continue to replace junior private creditors lucky enough to have their claims coming to maturity in the next two years, they will set up the remaining unlucky creditors to be whacked harder by an Argentine-style haircut when a debt at 160% of GDP hits the wall.\u00bb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nouriel Roubini, el gur\u00fa de la econom\u00eda, se pronuncia sobre los planes de \u00absalvamento\u00bb de la deuda griega. Copio debajo sus palabras en ingl\u00e9s. En definitiva, parece que la Uni\u00f3n Europea, el Banco Central Europeo y el Fondo Monetario Internacional se inclinan por poner m\u00e1s dinero en el rescate, en lugar de preferir una reestructuraci\u00f3n [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":172,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11722],"tags":[12812,1588,13164,23561],"class_list":["post-584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia","tag-deuda-publica","tag-espana","tag-grecia","tag-salvamento"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/172"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=584"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":588,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/584\/revisions\/588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/antonioargandona\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}