{"id":1139,"date":"2014-05-05T09:55:59","date_gmt":"2014-05-05T08:55:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/?p=1139"},"modified":"2014-05-06T08:21:08","modified_gmt":"2014-05-06T07:21:08","slug":"the-russians-are-comming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2014\/05\/05\/the-russians-are-comming\/","title":{"rendered":"The Russians are Coming"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Last week I was at UCLA for our <a href=\"http:\/\/www.iese.edu\/en\/executive-education\/sectorial-management-programs\/media-entertainment\/introduction\/\" target=\"_blank\">Advanced Management Program in Media &amp; Entertainmen<\/a>t and was prepared to write about California but that will have to wait as it appears that <strong>Russia is likely to invade Ukraine<\/strong> at any moment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">According to the <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/worldnews\/europe\/ukraine\/10807881\/Ukraine-crisis-Vladimir-Putin-now-has-a-pretext-to-invade.html\">Daily Telegraph<\/a><\/em>, the death of 32 pro-Russian protestors in Odessa could offer Russia\u2019s President, <strong>Vladimir Putin<\/strong>, the pretext he needs to send the Russian Army into Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">While I am not sure of it accuracy, a website called <a title=\"Global Fire Power\" href=\"http:\/\/www.globalfirepower.com\/countries-comparison-detail.asp?form=form&amp;country1=russia&amp;country2=ukraine&amp;Submit=Compare+Countries\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"s2\">globalfirepower.com<\/span><\/a> allows the comparison of the Russian army to the Ukrainian and with almost 5 times as many men, 8 times as many helicopters and more than 10 times as many tanks, <strong>Ukraine does not stand a chance in open conflict<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Not so secret war<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n<figure id=\"attachment_973\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-973\" style=\"width: 202px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/03\/1c45a98cf9e2a10bddaf8e9e45215d4c1-e1393859111516.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-973\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/03\/1c45a98cf9e2a10bddaf8e9e45215d4c1-e1393859111516-150x110.jpeg\" alt=\"Glenn Kates\" width=\"202\" height=\"148\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-973\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Glenn Kates<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>The first phase of Russia\u2019s operation was its takeover of Crimea<\/strong> where it sent thousands of heavily armed soldiers to occupy the province prior to its takeover of the regional parliament and the holding a hastily organized referendum which of course voted to join Russia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">This appeared to be the plan in the Eastern provinces of Ukraine which, as <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2014\/03\/03\/crimea-ukraine\/#sthash.4XhmqSns.dpbs\">discussed<\/a> in this space, is not as Russian as most media is saying. This time, according to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foreignpolicy.com\/articles\/2014\/05\/01\/ukraines_mob_war_mafia_russia\" target=\"_blank\">Genya Savilov<\/a>, Russia is using a mix of its own special forces and intelligence units with the local Mafia to repeat the play in Crimea.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The Ukrainian government has been understandably trying, over the last few weeks, to stop Russia from taking over half, or perhaps even all of the country, but I fear that the trap is almost complete.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">If Kiev allows these so called \u201cpatriots\u201d to hold their &#8220;referendums&#8221;, then they will bully the local population into acceptance and as they try to stop them, with force, they give Russia the pretext to invade.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Why worry?<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p2\">One may wonder <strong>why a Professor who is primarily interested in Energy and the environment, spends so much time worrying about geopolitics and what is happening in Ukraine?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/05\/529B39F8-B669-4F9A-B7B9-76E9206139FC_mw1024_n_s.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright  wp-image-1141\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/05\/529B39F8-B669-4F9A-B7B9-76E9206139FC_mw1024_n_s-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"529B39F8-B669-4F9A-B7B9-76E9206139FC_mw1024_n_s\" width=\"179\" height=\"179\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The first point is that, as far as I can tell, the Ukrainian people rose up against the former government not so much to be European, but because they were fed up with the criminal behavior of Viktor Yanukovych and his cronies and that to see Russia bringing these same people back is an enormous human tragedy.<\/li>\n<li>The second is that Ukraine sits in a critical position between Russia and Europe and could potentially control the flow of natural gas which keeps Europe warm and the Russian government solvent.<\/li>\n<li>The last reason is <strong>the future of the northern part of the planet<\/strong>, which as UCLA\u2019s Laurence Smith writes in his exceptional book, <a title=\"The World in 2050\" href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/The-World-2050-Civilizations-Northern\/dp\/0452297478\" target=\"_blank\"><em>The World in 2050<\/em><\/a>, will become increasingly important, depends largely on the excellent multilateral relations that have existed between the arctic powers for the last 20 years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">As I <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2014\/03\/10\/crimea-and-chinese-air-pollution\/#sthash.gCaYlgm8.dpbs\">predicted<\/a>, <strong>the West was ready to allow Russia to have Crimea<\/strong>\u00a0but I can not imagine how President Obama and Chancellor Merkel will go back to business as usual after the seizure of Donestk and Kharkiv.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Russia will likely invade Ukraine in the coming days and this will probably set back international cooperation for years to come on critical issues such as gas supplies to Europe and the peaceful development of the Arctic<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":788,"featured_media":1149,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[588,26749],"tags":[40392,76575,82354,82355,61834,60723,82356,76572],"class_list":["post-1139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","category-geopolitics","tag-arctic","tag-crimea","tag-donestk","tag-kharkiv","tag-merkel","tag-obama","tag-putin","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/788"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1139"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1139\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1148,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1139\/revisions\/1148"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1149"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}