{"id":1287,"date":"2014-07-07T09:00:07","date_gmt":"2014-07-07T08:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/?p=1287"},"modified":"2014-07-11T20:08:16","modified_gmt":"2014-07-11T19:08:16","slug":"tony-haywards-bet-on-kurdistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2014\/07\/07\/tony-haywards-bet-on-kurdistan\/","title":{"rendered":"Tony Hayward&#8217;s Bet on Kurdistan"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_1289\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1289\" style=\"width: 150px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1289 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/07\/images-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"Massoud Barzani\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1289\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Massoud Barzani<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Two weeks ago I posted a <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2014\/06\/23\/time-to-partition-iraq\/#sthash.2Ue5yc3f.dpbs\">piece<\/a> about the <strong>disintegrating nation of Iraq<\/strong> and the emerging nation of <strong>Iraqi Kurdistan<\/strong> whose President, <strong>Massoud Barzani<\/strong>, is now openly <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2014\/jul\/03\/iraq-kurdish-president-barzani-proposes-independence-referendum\" target=\"_blank\">calling for independence<\/a> and planning a referendum on the subject.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">One question which is heavily <a href=\"http:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Energy-General\/11-Years-On-Were-Still-In-Shock-And-Awe-Over-Iraq.html\" target=\"_blank\">commented<\/a> in <strong>energy markets<\/strong> is what affect, if any, will the evolution of the situation have on <strong>oil prices<\/strong> in the short term and long term.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1288\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1288\" style=\"width: 727px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/07\/Macrotrends.org_Crude_Oil_Price_History_Chart.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-1288\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/07\/Macrotrends.org_Crude_Oil_Price_History_Chart.png\" alt=\"Inflation Adjusted Price of Oil\" width=\"727\" height=\"430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/07\/Macrotrends.org_Crude_Oil_Price_History_Chart.png 930w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/07\/Macrotrends.org_Crude_Oil_Price_History_Chart-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2014\/07\/Macrotrends.org_Crude_Oil_Price_History_Chart-624x369.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 727px) 100vw, 727px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1288\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Inflation Adjusted Price of Oil<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Genel Energy<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><a title=\"Genel Energy\" href=\"http:\/\/www.genelenergy.com\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Genel Energy<\/strong><\/a> was founded by a Turkish entrepreneur, Mehmet Sepil, and established a production sharing contract with Iraqui Kurdistan in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.genelenergy.com\/about-us\/history.aspx\">2002<\/a>, before the U.S. invasion of the country and before the historic agreement in 2005 between <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Kurdish_Civil_War\" target=\"_blank\">warring<\/a>\u00a0Kurdish political groups which led to the political stability the region enjoys today.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"> In September 2011, well before the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bp.com\" target=\"_blank\">BP<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s former Managing Director, <strong>Tony Hayward<\/strong>, led his investment company, which had raised $ 2.2 billion, to merge with Genel. Genel had, by this time, not only began production at Taq Taq, its first field, but was well on its way to becoming the largest operator in the autonomous region.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The critical piece of infrastructure is a <strong>250 miles long pipeline running from Kurdistan\u2019s capital, Erbil, across the Turkish border<\/strong> where it connects to the older Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline which <strong>has allowed Iraq to export is oil through Turkey<\/strong> when the pipeline was not blocked due to sabotage or political issues.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">In an interview with the <em>BBC<\/em>, Hayward explains how the Iraqi Kurdistan is safe and secure and hints that it might be time for him to sell Genel to one of them:<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><iframe class='xavier' width='100%' height='400' frameborder='0' allow='fullscreen' allowfullscreen src='https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/4Ne_4x0YlTU'><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Iraqi regular troops have also <a href=\"https:\/\/news.vice.com\/article\/iraqs-isis-crisis-puts-long-disputed-oil-rich-kirkuk-back-into-kurdish-hands\" target=\"_blank\">reportedly<\/a> fled the city of Kirkuk facing the ISIL\u2019s advance but dropping the city into the lap of Kurdistan\u2019s armed forces. If Kirkuk were to end up being part of Iraqi Kurdistan, then the gamble made first by Sepil and then by Hayward and his colleagues will be worth even more!<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Timing is everything<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In last week\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2014\/06\/30\/long-term-thinking\/#sthash.W35qd0f3.dpbs\">post<\/a> I spoke about the importance of taking the long view as a way to balance value creation with financial\u00a0results. In the case of Genel Energy, we see Hayward merge with Genel about 10 years after Mehmet Sepil started working on the Kurdistan deal and then starting to see his own exit 3-5 years later!<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The other thing about the story I find fascinating, is the deep interplay between history, geopolitics and energy which has come together in what appears to be a very favorable way for Mr. Hayward and Genel.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Is this the only outcome that could have been expected? My guess is that <strong>if Iraq had succeeded as a<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>unified country, the investments would still make sense but that the value of the relationship with the political leadership of Kurdistan and local business interests is significant higher in the increasingly likely event of an independent Kurdistan<\/strong> with or without Kirkuk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tony Hayward&#8217;s investment in iraqi Kurdistan appears to paying off as the region pushed for independence from the rest of the country which appears to be at the brink due to the advance of the ISIL &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":788,"featured_media":1292,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[588,26749,82381],"tags":[82373,82383,82374,82384],"class_list":["post-1287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","category-geopolitics","category-long-term-planning","tag-iraq","tag-isil","tag-kurdistan","tag-tony-hayward"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1287","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/788"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1287"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1287\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1301,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1287\/revisions\/1301"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1287"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1287"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1287"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}