{"id":2763,"date":"2016-04-11T08:30:52","date_gmt":"2016-04-11T07:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/?p=2763"},"modified":"2016-05-09T07:39:54","modified_gmt":"2016-05-09T06:39:54","slug":"the-last-months-of-the-u-s-primaries-and-why-they-matter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2016\/04\/11\/the-last-months-of-the-u-s-primaries-and-why-they-matter\/","title":{"rendered":"The last months of the U.S. primaries (and why they matter)"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the\u00a0American presidential election<\/strong> drags on, my European friends and colleagues\u00a0constantly ask me about the chances that Donald Trump actually has in winning the nomination<\/strong> of the Republican Party and eventually the general election<\/strong> in November. For many of them\u00a0the primary system is confusing at best and seems a little silly.<\/p>\n

As I have written in an earlier post<\/a>, there are\u00a0three key things to keep in mind when observing the process<\/strong>. The first one is that the Republican and Democratic parties are two private organizations that made up their own rules on how to choose their candidates <\/span><\/a>\u00a0and can do essentially whatever they like subject to their own procedures and governance structures.<\/p>\n

The second is that the process plays out across 50\u00a0States which are still semi autonomous entities within the United States and that each\u00a0party’s organization in each state is also separate from the party’s national structure. They are more like franchises <\/span><\/a>\u00a0than anything else and often have their own rules for selecting state level candidates and the delegates to the national conventions which is where the candidates are formally selected.<\/p>\n

\"opensecrets.org<\/a>
opensecrets.org (accessed April 9th, 2016)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The third is that there is an enormous amount of money being spent on this election which opensecrets.org says is over $ 1billion between the political action committees and the candidates themselves<\/strong>. The political action committees are the darker bars in the graph to the right and by law\u00a0the candidates and their campaigns can have no influence or communication with them.<\/p>\n

Where Are We ?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

At this time the outcome\u00a0on both sides is uncertain although both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are still in the lead<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Trump has 743 delegates<\/strong> according to realclearpolitics<\/a>, a web site, and needs 1,237 before the Republican convention<\/strong> starts in Cleveland on July 18th in order to have a majority in the first round of voting. There are still 769 delegates in play in the 16 States left<\/strong> which means he would need to win 64% of the remaining votes. Some of these States, such as New York (95 delegates, April 19th) award delegates proportionally and others have a winner take all policy such as Pennsylvania (71 , April 26) and California (172, June 7th) . If Trump were to win California, where he is ahead in the polls, he would only need 53% of the remaining delegates<\/strong>\u00a0and that\u00a0looks possible seeing how he should do well in New York and New Jersey.<\/p>\n

Ted Cruz is betting that Trump will not have enough votes on the first round<\/strong> and then can convince supporters of Governor Kasich and others who have already\u00a0dropped out to support him on the second or third round when party rules at the State level allow delegates to switch their votes<\/strong>. Governor Kasich has a plan which involves winning Pennsylvania<\/a> and getting to the convention as the only grown up<\/a> who\u00a0can bring the party together.<\/p>\n

On the democratic side Hillary\u00a0Clinton is still ahead of Bernie\u00a0Sanders 1,280 to 1,061<\/strong> when looking at the delegates she won in the primaries according to\u00a0realclearpolitics<\/a>. The Democrats will choose 4,051 delegates<\/strong> in the primaries but also give delegate status to 712 party officials<\/strong> and political representatives who are referred to as super-delegates so that the total is 4,763 <\/strong>and either candidate needs 2,382 to win.<\/p>\n

Of these super-delegates 469 have pledged their support for Ms. Clinton and only 31 for Sen. Sanders<\/strong>. The problem for Hillary is that these people can change their mind<\/strong> at anytime before the voting starts at the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia on July 25th<\/strong>. Sen. Sanders believes that if he has more delegates<\/strong> from the primaries he will be able to “flip” these delegates<\/strong> as the politicians may not choose to go against “the will of the people”.<\/p>\n

All of the Democratic contests are proportional and the critical states are again New York (247), Pennsylvania (189) and California (475)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Does it Matter ?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\"Leslie<\/a>
Leslie H. Gelb, 2009<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I try to follow the election<\/strong> as closely as I can because I find it\u00a0highly entertaining and potentially very important<\/strong>. In Power Rules<\/em>, Leslie H. Gelb puts forth an image of \u00a0a pyramid of power in the world with the U.S. at the top.<\/p>\n

The idea is that the United States can not and should not act alone<\/strong> in the world but that it is difficult to imagine the world solving important problems without the U.S. <\/span><\/a>\u00a0given its overwhelming military and economic power.<\/p>\n

His point in the book is that power needs to be used wisely and we need wise people to wield it<\/strong>. Only three\u00a0of the current set of candidates is qualified to wield this power in my private opinion. Two are Democrats and one is the Governor of Ohio<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As we enter the last few months of the entertaining and worrying U.S. Primary season, New York, Pennsylvania, and California are critical for the candidates to obtain their party’s nominations and maybe, becoming President of the United States.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":788,"featured_media":2772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25698,26749],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-elections","category-geopolitics","megacategoria-mc-globalization"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t