{"id":2909,"date":"2016-06-27T08:30:52","date_gmt":"2016-06-27T07:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/?p=2909"},"modified":"2016-08-08T10:07:01","modified_gmt":"2016-08-08T09:07:01","slug":"brexit-a-positive-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2016\/06\/27\/brexit-a-positive-scenario\/","title":{"rendered":"Brexit: A Positive Scenario"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Nigel<\/a>
Nigel Farage<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

So in the end Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage managed to scare the most vulnerable part of the electorate in the U.K.<\/strong> into voting for Brexit<\/strong> and their victory has reportedly<\/a> wiped out $2 trillion of the world’s stock market value and created a higher degree of concern for the future<\/strong> than at any point in recent memory!<\/p>\n

The good news is that the process will, most likely, be a slow one<\/strong>. In the first place the referendum is legally non-binding<\/strong> and thus the government in the United Kingdom can take as long as it needs to officially\u00a0inform Brussels of its desire to leave<\/strong>. Secondly, with the resignation of David Cameron<\/strong>, the country has no Prime Minister and as Cameron himself said the country will need “fresh leadership” \u00a0to lead the process of seperation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"Boris<\/a>
Boris Johnson<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

According to the The Guardian<\/a><\/em>, Boris Johnson is favored to succeed Cameron<\/strong> in October and has said there “is no need or haste”<\/strong>. Finally EU law allows for two years for the negotiation<\/strong> process<\/strong> after receiving official notification \u00a0so nobody needs to sell their homes in Europe anytime soon and most things will continue\u00a0as before for at least a year or two.<\/p>\n

Regardless of who ends up leading the Tories, I would make the following recommendation based on my own analysis of the current situation which was discussed in a post<\/a> a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n

In the first place, Britain needs the EU and the EU needs Britain<\/strong>. There are, for example,\u00a0380,000\u00a0British subjects\u00a0living in Spain, 250,000 in Ireland and 170,000 in France! According to fullfact.org<\/a>, the total is 1.2 million Brits living in Europe and about 3 million Europeans living in the UK<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Britain’s industry and financial institutions are are\u00a0also deeply connected to Europe<\/strong> and it makes little sense to lose the advantages that the UK’s membership has brought based on such a slim election result.<\/p>\n

Secondly, the\u00a0structure and workings of the European Union are however very slow<\/strong>, complex, and perhaps more bureaucratic than democratic<\/strong>. One would hope that the victory of the LEAVE campaign\u00a0will serve as a wake up call to Europe<\/strong> and that it will undertake serious, fundamental reform.<\/p>\n

Putting these two ideas together does, I believe, outline<\/strong> a positive scenario for Brexit<\/strong> and this takes me to my advice or Mr. Johnson or whoever ends up leading the process. The basic idea is to negotiate a comprehensive agreement which leaves Britain in the European Economic Area<\/strong> and leaves most of the key aspects o the relationship \u00a0pretty much as they are. \u00a0Exceptions would be made on a few particularly media friendly items such as the Common Agricultural Policy<\/strong> and immigration<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"imgres-1\"<\/a>Such an agreement will take years to put together and meanwhile,\u00a0British\u00a0diplomats should help in every way they can to encourage reform in Brussels<\/strong>.\u00a0Reform will be more urgent than ever because<\/strong> other countries will be watching how this all plays out and may begin to fall like dominos. The goal should be to re-make the EU such that it is more agile and less expensive and, at the same time, more democratic and in touch with real people’s issues.<\/p>\n

This whole process will take us to the Spring or summer of 2018<\/strong> at which time the Tory Leader will either be able to declare victory for the fantastic treaty<\/strong> they have\u00a0negotiated\u00a0or simply hold another referendum stressing how much the EU has changed<\/strong> and that Britain might as well stay in after all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Brexit process will most likely take a long time and could possibly produce an agreement very close to the current situation regardless of who the new Prime Minister will be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":788,"featured_media":2916,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25698,26749],"tags":[95110],"class_list":["post-2909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-elections","category-geopolitics","tag-brexit","megacategoria-mc-globalization"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t