{"id":3524,"date":"2017-04-10T08:30:37","date_gmt":"2017-04-10T07:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/?p=3524"},"modified":"2017-05-14T22:22:50","modified_gmt":"2017-05-14T21:22:50","slug":"the-climate-and-global-agriculture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2017\/04\/10\/the-climate-and-global-agriculture\/","title":{"rendered":"The Climate and Global Agriculture"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">The good news is that despite the fact that <strong>the world&#8217;s population has doubled in the last 50 years<\/strong> or so, Malthusian predictions about a shortage of food have been proven unfounded to date and only <strong>10.8 % of humanity is considered undernourished as opposed to 18.6% 15 years ago<\/strong>. <strong>The bad news is there are still 793 million people in the world without enough to eat and\u00a0climate change may have a devastating impact on the agricultural sector<\/strong> of more is not done to mitigate its effects and adapt the world&#8217;s food supply.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3527\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3527\" style=\"width: 560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.fao.org\/3\/a-i4691e.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3527\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2017\/04\/Screen-Shot-2017-04-09-at-7.04.47-PM.png\" alt=\"FAO Statistical Pocketbook\" width=\"560\" height=\"336\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2017\/04\/Screen-Shot-2017-04-09-at-7.04.47-PM.png 560w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2017\/04\/Screen-Shot-2017-04-09-at-7.04.47-PM-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2017\/04\/Screen-Shot-2017-04-09-at-7.04.47-PM-500x300.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3527\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">FAO Statistical Pocketbook<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>Complex System Dynamics<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">What makes this a complex topic to look at is that the system dynamics involved. Higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon, for example, will\u00a0be good for plants in general. On the other hand, rising temperatures will, most likely, create a number of problems for agriculture which will potentially erase that\u00a0benefit and make it more difficult to feed the planet. Negative\u00a0impacts include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p2\">shorter growing seasons in many parts of the world<\/li>\n<li class=\"p2\">higher co2 concentrations in soil<\/li>\n<li class=\"p2\">increases in weeds, pests, and the growth of disease<\/li>\n<li class=\"p2\">changing rainfall patters and an increase in both draughts and floods<\/li>\n<li class=\"p2\">spreading desertification<\/li>\n<li class=\"p2\">rising sea levels reducing land availability and increasing salinization<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>Water Stress<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>Agriculture currently consumes about 70% of the world&#8217;s fresh water<\/strong> and a significant part of the planet is currently undergoing significant water stress. There is a clear link between climate change. The great California draught over the last four years of draught costs it&#8217;s farmers over $ 1 billion per year! Although the last rainy\u00a0season in California was considered to be back to normal, much of the state is still facing serious water shortages.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">There is also a direct\u00a0link between the severe draught which affected Syria between 2006 and 2010 and the civil war\u00a0and refugee crisis.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>Winners &amp; Losers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">According\u00a0California&#8217;s Department of Agriculture, a warmer climate will be good for vegetables such as beans, onions, and sweet corn but will have a negative\u00a0impact on other, thirstier crops which currently play an important role in the State&#8217;s economy such as fruits and nuts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">Worldwide, some countries will have seriously negative impacts, while others, in the far north and south, may see an improvement in agricultural\u00a0conditions. In a <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/2015\/12\/28\/climate-change-and-wine-making\/\">post<\/a> back in 2015 I made the point that champagne companies\u00a0were buying up land in the United\u00a0Kingdom due to the changing climate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>Stranded Assets<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">As part of the Sustainable Finance Program at Oxford University&#8217;s\u00a0Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk\/research-programmes\/stranded-assets\/Stranded%20Assets%20Agriculture%20Report%20Final.pdf\">study<\/a> was published in 2013 which looked at the impact of climate change on agricultural land around the world. The study looked at risk factors and evaluated them in terms of the degree to which they were moving slow and fast and also whether the risk to land values would happen in the short or long term. Overall, the study found that these risks could decrease the value of the agricultural\u00a0sector by trillions of dollars!<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2017\/04\/Screen-Shot-2017-04-09-at-12.46.43-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3528\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2017\/04\/Screen-Shot-2017-04-09-at-12.46.43-PM.png\" alt=\"Screen Shot 2017-04-09 at 12.46.43 PM\" width=\"632\" height=\"438\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2017\/04\/Screen-Shot-2017-04-09-at-12.46.43-PM.png 632w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2017\/04\/Screen-Shot-2017-04-09-at-12.46.43-PM-300x208.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/files\/2017\/04\/Screen-Shot-2017-04-09-at-12.46.43-PM-500x347.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 632px) 100vw, 632px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>\u00a0Time to Act<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">While the world has collectively recognized the importance of trying to slow climate change, the present U.S. Government is going the wrong way on almost every issue. Fortunately, a number of American\u00a0cities and States such as California are still pursuing climate friendly\u00a0policies and with a little bit of luck, the U.S. will go back to having a sensible and qualified president in 2020.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">In any case, if someone was thinking about the future, they might consider buying a farm in Alaska.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Climate change is already having an enormous impact on the agricultural sector and the world will need to dedicate huge amounts of money, time and energy for adaptation and mitigation over the next 20-30 years. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":788,"featured_media":3530,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[419,70358],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change","category-water","megacategoria-mc-sustainability"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/788"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3524"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3524\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3560,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3524\/revisions\/3560"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3530"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/doing-business\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}