{"id":1914,"date":"2012-04-23T12:12:17","date_gmt":"2012-04-23T11:12:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/?p=1914"},"modified":"2012-04-26T11:45:12","modified_gmt":"2012-04-26T10:45:12","slug":"nacionalizacion-de-ypf-deja-vu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/04\/23\/nacionalizacion-de-ypf-deja-vu\/","title":{"rendered":"Nacionalizaci\u00f3n de YPF. Deja vu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Abril 2012, YPF es nacionalizada: nada nuevo bajo el sol. Ya ocurri\u00f3 y probablemente volver\u00e1 a pasar. V\u00e9ase si no la siguiente secuencia de decisiones del Gobierno de Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner (tomada del FT 18\/4\/12).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Noviembre 2008. El Gobierno pasa a controlar los fondos de pensiones, hasta ese momento privados. Se hace con la gesti\u00f3n de 23.000 millones de euros, que utilizar\u00e1 para devolver la propia deuda del Gobierno argentino. Ver en este blog \u201cLlora por mi Argentina\u201d, de 20\/11\/2008.<\/li>\n<li>Diciembre 2008. Se nacionaliza Aerol\u00edneas Argentinas.<\/li>\n<li>Enero 2010. El Banco Central de Argentina se niega a entregar al Gobierno 6.600 millones de euros de sus reservas y su gobernador es depuesto. El Gobierno se hace con esas reservas, que utiliza para devolver deuda.<\/li>\n<li>Octubre 2011. Se imponen restricciones a la compra de d\u00f3lares. Parece que la gente conf\u00eda en el d\u00f3lar y no en el peso.<\/li>\n<li>Febrero 2012. Se impone autorizaci\u00f3n administrativa previa a toda importaci\u00f3n.<\/li>\n<li>Abril 2012. Se nacionaliza YPF.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>La explicaci\u00f3n a todo esto es sencilla. El Gobierno Argentino hizo impago de su deuda (default) en 2001. 20.000 millones de de deuda p\u00fablica tuvieron que ser renegociados, con importantes p\u00e9rdidas para los prestamistas. Desde entonces el Gobierno Argentino no ha podido acudir a los mercados de cr\u00e9dito internacional (no ha podido emitir bonos). Si no tienes d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico esto no es un problema. Pero si hay d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico porque gastas m\u00e1s de lo que ingresas, tienes que sacar el dinero de donde sea: banco central, fondos de pensiones, nacionalizaci\u00f3n de empresas que produzcan cash\u2026 y lo que sea.<\/p>\n<p>El mejor predictor de la conducta futura es la conducta pasada. Dentro de otros dos a\u00f1os m\u00e1s o menos, el Gobierno de Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez se ver\u00e1 forzado a otra nacionalizaci\u00f3n, para cubrir el dinero que se ha gastado en los a\u00f1os anteriores.<\/p>\n<p>Incidentalmente, el Gobierno argentino es el que m\u00e1s defaults ha tenido desde 1900: 1915, 1930, 1982, 2001. Y tambi\u00e9n es el que m\u00e1s demandas tiene en la corte internacional de arbitraje. Lo que ha ocurrido ahora en absoluto es una sorpresa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nacionalizaci\u00f3n de YPF. Era previsible. Ya ocurrio recientmente y probablmente volver\u00e1 a ocurrir. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26212,26214],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia-crisis-economica","category-gestion-publica-politicas"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nacionalizaci\u00f3n de YPF. Era previsible. 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