{"id":2053,"date":"2012-06-20T08:27:59","date_gmt":"2012-06-20T07:27:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/?p=2053"},"modified":"2012-06-20T08:31:08","modified_gmt":"2012-06-20T07:31:08","slug":"turmoil-in-the-markets-answers-to-foreign-correspondents","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/06\/20\/turmoil-in-the-markets-answers-to-foreign-correspondents\/","title":{"rendered":"Turmoil in the markets. Answers to foreign correspondents"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">With the news that Spain\u00b4s risk premium today reached 550 points and bond yields are above 7%, we need some quick comments\/thoughts from you on this.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Specifically:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Do these figures mean a sovereign bailout for Spain is needed?<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Or do you think this is normal \u2013 i.e. the markets have acted in an exaggerated way to Moody\u00b4s downgrade, and will soon calm down<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">Everyone is now looking at Germany for a solution. Is this realistic? Can Germany &#8211; or even Brussels &#8211; really do anything?<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">What will be the consequences for Europe if a sovereign bailout of Spain happens?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>ANSWERS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Overall answer to the current turmoil in the debt markets<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>They current turmoil in the debt markets is a consequence of three factors:<\/p>\n<p>a)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Lack of action or lack of detailed action by the European authorities.<\/p>\n<p>b)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Increased perception of risk (uncertainty) among investor that could produce over reaction, sometimes foolish.<\/p>\n<p>c)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Negative impact of sensationalist news, absent of data that influence the public and the markets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Specific answers to the questions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><strong>1.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><strong>Do these figures mean a sovereign bailout for Spain is needed?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00a0Not necessarily. The rescue or bail out occurs when nobody lends money to a Government and then the Government has to rely on funds provided by the EU. It also occurs when the interest rate to pay is prohibitive. 7% is not!.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>So far the Spanish Gov has covered all the bond issues reasonably well.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>The total cost of the debt for the Spanish Government is on average 4%, or 32 billion which is a 7% of the public budget\u2026 not that much. <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2011\/11\/30\/prima-de-riesgo-y-coste-de-la-deuda\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2011\/11\/30\/prima-de-riesgo-y-coste-de-la-deuda\/<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0<span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><strong>2.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><strong>Or do you think this is normal \u2013 i.e. the markets have acted in an exaggerated way to Moody\u00b4s downgrade, and will soon calm down<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Spain has similar figures to UK in terms of public deficit, public debt, lack of economic growth. It had also similar house bubble and problems with banks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/04\/18\/deuda-publica-de-espana-y-de-otros-paises\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/04\/18\/deuda-publica-de-espana-y-de-otros-paises\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/06\/06\/deudas-y-activos-de-las-familias\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/06\/06\/deudas-y-activos-de-las-familias\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/04\/13\/deuda-de-espana-y-otros-paises\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/04\/13\/deuda-de-espana-y-otros-paises\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/02\/28\/se-merece-uk-un-rating-de-aaa\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/02\/28\/se-merece-uk-un-rating-de-aaa\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\">See Category <em>Deuda P\u00fablica<\/em> in the blog. There are many short posts with data.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>But the reaction of the markets towards Spain or Italy vs. UK has been very different. <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2011\/11\/11\/italia-vs-uk\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2011\/11\/11\/italia-vs-uk\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Markets are made up of people, with feelings, euphoria and depression, even panic. Don\u2019t be surprised if they go up to heaven or down to hell in a matter of days. It is prudent to hear the voice of the markets to understand what they feel, but don\u2019t follow them closely.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/06\/12\/no-presten-atencion-a-los-analistas\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/06\/12\/no-presten-atencion-a-los-analistas\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2011\/07\/28\/cuidado-con-los-mercados\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2011\/07\/28\/cuidado-con-los-mercados\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><strong>3.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><strong>Everyone is now looking at Germany for a solution. Is this realistic? Can Germany &#8211; or even Brussels &#8211; really do anything?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00a0The main problem of Europe is the lack of economic action. See article on how the USA reacted to the crisis and why the lack of action in Europe.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/03\/27\/como-remonto-ee-uu\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/03\/27\/como-remonto-ee-uu\/<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00a0The lack of action of Europe is explained by three factors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 There are three government entities that have the executive power: European Council, European Commission, Council of the EU\u2026 to many entities to take quick and effective action.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/06\/07\/mas-europa-pero-que-alguien-mande\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/06\/07\/mas-europa-pero-que-alguien-mande\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 National interest still play an important role. Europeans are not convinced the whole is greater than the sum of the parts<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px\">&#8211;\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Germany plays \u201cthe\u201d crucial role. Ms. Merkel is victim of her prejudices. <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/05\/14\/porque-europa-no-actua\/\">https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2012\/05\/14\/porque-europa-no-actua\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><strong>4.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><strong>What will be the consequences for Europe if a sovereign bailout of Spain happens?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00a0Unpredictable, which means even more uncertainty\u2026 more risk which means all the markets down.<\/li>\n<li>If Spain falls the next will be Italy<\/li>\n<li>The stampede effect is well known among the market practitioners. You have to stop the crowd before the stampede starts, when the stamped occurs the effects are devastating\u2026. and they could have been avoided easily\u2026 with appropriate, effective and tough action.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Preguntas de periodistas extranjeros sobre la prima de riesgo (cada d\u00eda llaman varios\u2026 hay mucha inquietud). Adjunto las respuestas<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18950],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-regulacion-de-mercados"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/166"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2053"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2053\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2055,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2053\/revisions\/2055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}