{"id":2709,"date":"2013-05-22T11:17:13","date_gmt":"2013-05-22T10:17:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/?p=2709"},"modified":"2013-06-28T11:11:42","modified_gmt":"2013-06-28T10:11:42","slug":"mitos-sobre-la-deuda-publica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2013\/05\/22\/mitos-sobre-la-deuda-publica\/","title":{"rendered":"Mitos sobre la deuda p\u00fablica"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Deuda p\u00fablica<\/strong> es lo que la administraci\u00f3n p\u00fablica (central, auton\u00f3mica, local y seguridad social) debe. No es la deuda del pa\u00eds, es <strong>s\u00f3lo la deuda del gobierno<\/strong>. La deuda del pa\u00eds es la suma de lo que deben gobierno, empresas y familias. A veces se oye<i>: \u201cGrecia est\u00e1 en suspensi\u00f3n de pagos o es insolvente\u201d. <\/i>Es incorrecto. El que es o pudiera ser insolvente es el gobierno de Grecia no necesariamente sus ciudadanos o empresas.<\/p>\n<p><strong>La deuda p\u00fablica ronda los 880 millardos (miles de millones) o un 84% del PIB<\/strong>. En 2007 Espa\u00f1a era el pa\u00eds con menos deuda p\u00fablica de Europa; pero de 2009 a 2012 ha aumentado en unos 100 millardos (o 10% del PIB) al a\u00f1o. Cada vez que hay d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico aumenta la deuda, pues hay que pedir prestado el dinero que no tenemos aqu\u00ed para pagar los gastos del gobierno. <strong>Entre un 35% y un 40% de la deuda p\u00fablica espa\u00f1ola est\u00e1 en manos de extranjeros<\/strong>. El resto lo prestan familias o empresas espa\u00f1olas. No confundir deuda p\u00fablica con deuda externa. La deuda externa es lo que el pa\u00eds (familias, empresas y gobierno) deben a los de fuera del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mito: <i>\u201cSi la deuda p\u00fablica supera el 90% del PIB el pa\u00eds entra en la espiral del decrecimiento\u201d<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Realidad: <strong>Jap\u00f3n tiene desde hace muchos a\u00f1os una deuda p\u00fablica superior al 200% del PIB y no pasa nada<\/strong>. No crece mucho, pero siguen siendo ricos. En los \u00faltimos 250 a\u00f1os Gran Breta\u00f1a ha tenido una deuda p\u00fablica promedio del 100% del PIB, con much\u00edsimos a\u00f1os llegando al 200%. Solo durante 100 a\u00f1os de estos 250 la deuda fue inferior al 100% del PIB. Y no ha pasado nada. <strong>Deuda insostenible es la que no se puede pagar y esto depende no s\u00f3lo de cuanta deuda tienes, sino de qu\u00e9 tipo de inter\u00e9s pagas (en Espa\u00f1a es el 4%, bajo) y de cu\u00e1nto ganas<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Mito:\u00a0<i>\u201cHace falta austeridad para bajar la deuda\u201d<\/i><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Realidad: para reducir la deuda p\u00fablica en euros, es necesario tener super\u00e1vit p\u00fablico y esto casi nunca ocurre. Espa\u00f1a, Alemania y Gran Breta\u00f1a s\u00f3lo han tenido super\u00e1vit p\u00fablico y muy peque\u00f1o, en 3 a\u00f1os de los \u00faltimos 22; Francia, Italia y Estados Unidos, nunca. <strong>Lo que s\u00ed se puede hacer es reducir la deuda p\u00fablica como porcentaje del PIB, y para ello no hay m\u00e1s remedio que aumentar el PIB<\/strong>. Por eso el m\u00e9todo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido de reducir deuda es aumentar el PIB, es decir crecer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Mito. <\/strong><i><strong>\u201cEspa\u00f1a tiene un nivel de deuda p\u00fablica que nunca podr\u00e1 devolver\u201d<\/strong><\/i><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Respuesta: \u00a1pues claro! Como el resto de pa\u00edses de nuestro entorno, como las empresas. Todos tienen deuda que siempre estar\u00e1 ah\u00ed. La \u00fanica condici\u00f3n es que esa deuda no suba mucho. <strong>Esa financiaci\u00f3n es buena para los gobiernos, para las empresas y para los inversores. El sistema funciona as\u00ed y funciona bien, salvo cuando algunos cometen imprudencias: unos por pedir prestado en demas\u00eda y otros por pasarse prestando.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Moraleja<\/strong>: desde la UE deber\u00edan ser conscientes de que <strong>el mejor modo de bajar la deuda (en porcentaje del PIB) es fomentando el crecimiento<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Art\u00edculo publicado en el\u00a0<em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elperiodico.com\/es\/economia\/\" target=\"_blank\">El Peri\u00f3dico<\/a><\/em>\u00a0el\u00a016 de mayo\u00a0de 2013. <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2013\/05\/Mitos-sobre-la-deuda-p\u00fablica.pdf\">Art\u00edculo en pdf<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El mejor modo de reducir la deuda p\u00fablica es que el PIB crezca. La Uni\u00f3n Europea deber\u00eda ser conscientes de esta realidad e impulsar el crecimiento de la econom\u00eda y reducir la deuda como porcentaje del PIB de un pa\u00eds &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26211],"tags":[67634,67635,12812,71186],"class_list":["post-2709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gasto-publico-crisis-deuda","tag-deuda-externa","tag-deuda-privada","tag-deuda-publica","tag-mitos-sobre-la-deuda-publica"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El mejor modo de reducir la deuda p\u00fablica es que la econom\u00eda crezca y se reduzca la deuda como porcentaje del PIB. 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