{"id":2896,"date":"2013-10-30T10:07:48","date_gmt":"2013-10-30T09:07:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/?p=2896"},"modified":"2013-10-30T10:11:22","modified_gmt":"2013-10-30T09:11:22","slug":"las-malas-previsiones-del-fmi-de-quien-hay-que-fiarse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2013\/10\/30\/las-malas-previsiones-del-fmi-de-quien-hay-que-fiarse\/","title":{"rendered":"Las (malas) previsiones del FMI. \u00bfDe qui\u00e9n hay que fiarse?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\" align=\"center\"><span style=\"line-height: 1.714285714; font-size: 1rem;\"><strong>El Gobierno estima que la econom\u00eda espa\u00f1ola crecer\u00e1 un 0,7% en 2014<\/strong>. Los empresarios (CEOE) son m\u00e1s optimistas y creen que creceremos el 0,9%. Enfatizo la palabra \u201ccreen\u201d porque en esto de previsiones econ\u00f3micas, cierto, cierto no hay nada.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.714285714; font-size: 1rem;\"><strong>El FMI es mucho m\u00e1s pesimista y pronostica que el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico de 2014 en Espa\u00f1a ser\u00e1 de un m\u00e1s que modesto +0,2%<\/strong>, es decir casi nada\u2026 encefalograma plano. \u00bfDe qui\u00e9n hay que fiarse? <a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F2896%2F&text=Yo+prefiero+fiarme+de+los+empresarios+y+no+del+FMI+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">Yo prefiero fiarme de los empresarios y no del FMI <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>, por tres razones que ahora explico.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>En primer lugar, para que el PIB del a\u00f1o 2014 crezca un 0,2% ser\u00eda necesario que el crecimiento del PIB en cada trimestre (el llamado crecimiento intertrimestral) fuera del 0,02% cada trimestre, es decir nada de nada. El c\u00e1lculo lo puedo hacer el lector usando <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2013\/10\/C\u00e1culo-del-PIB-y-crecimiento-econ\u00f3mico.xls\">excel<\/a> que publiqu\u00e9 la semana pasada. Parece demasiado negativo. <strong>Despu\u00e9s de una secuencia de -0,8%, -0,4%, -0,1% y +0,1% <a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F2896%2F&text=Lo+m%E1s+l%F3gico+es+que+los+pr%F3ximos+trimestres+ronden+el+%2B0%2C2%25+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">lo m\u00e1s l\u00f3gico es que los pr\u00f3ximos trimestres ronden el +0,2% <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a><\/strong>\u00a0(en plan moderado) <strong>o incluso el +0,4%<\/strong> si somos m\u00e1s optimistas. Estos crecimientos no obedecen a series estad\u00edsticas sino al hecho de que las empresas de aqu\u00ed venden ligeramente m\u00e1s (aqu\u00ed o fuera) y ello porque han hecho un gran esfuerzo sobre todo de salir fuera y vender. No parece previsible que de repente se les paren las ventas, salvo que ocurra cualquier otra mal\u00edsima noticia.<\/p>\n<p>La segunda raz\u00f3n por la que desconf\u00edo (o no presto mucho atenci\u00f3n) a <strong>las previsiones del FMI es porque su historial de aciertos es m\u00e1s bien reducido<\/strong>. En julio 2008 y despu\u00e9s de 11 meses de crisis financiera, el FMI preve\u00eda que la econom\u00eda mundial crecer\u00eda un 3,9% en el 2009. La realidad fue que la econom\u00eda creci\u00f3 un -0,8%. <strong>El FMI fue incapaz de prever la mayor crisis econ\u00f3mica desde el la Gran Depresi\u00f3n en 1928<\/strong>. Las previsiones de crecimiento para Espa\u00f1a no han sido mejores:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Julio 08. Previsi\u00f3n para 2009: +1,2%. Realidad -3,6%.<\/li>\n<li>Julio 09. Previsi\u00f3n 2010: +0,6%. Realidad +0,1%.<\/li>\n<li>Junio 10. Previsi\u00f3n 2011: +1,6%. Realidad -1,6%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Extraiga el lector sus propias conclusiones sobre la fiabilidad de las previsiones del FMI.<\/p>\n<p>La tercera raz\u00f3n por la que me f\u00edo m\u00e1s de lo que dicen las empresas que de lo que dice el FMI es que, a la postre, el PIB viene a ser la suma de las ventas de todas las empresas del pa\u00eds. Por tanto, <strong>para saber c\u00f3mo ir\u00e1 el PIB hay que preguntar a las empresas<\/strong>. <strong>Es la empresa la que sabe si las ventas est\u00e1n repuntando o est\u00e1n estancadas; la que habla cada d\u00eda con el cliente y siente el pulso diario de la econom\u00eda. Esto desde el despacho en Washington es m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil apreciarlo.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El Gobierno estima que la econom\u00eda espa\u00f1ola crecer\u00e1 un 0,7% en el 2014. Los empresarios (CEOE) son m\u00e1s optimistas y creen que creceremos el 0,9%. El FMI pronostica un 0,2%, es decir casi nada\u2026 \u00bfDe qui\u00e9n hay que fiarse? Yo prefiero fiarme de los empresarios &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26212],"tags":[40582,15942,162,10679,19028],"class_list":["post-2896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia-crisis-economica","tag-ceoe","tag-crecimiento-economico","tag-crisis","tag-fmi","tag-pib"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El Gobierno estima que la econom\u00eda espa\u00f1ola crecer\u00e1 un 0,7% en 2014. Los empresarios, un 0,9%. El FMI, un 0,2%, \u00bfDe qui\u00e9n hay que fiarse? 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