{"id":3168,"date":"2014-04-10T11:54:51","date_gmt":"2014-04-10T10:54:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/?p=3168"},"modified":"2020-06-03T09:48:51","modified_gmt":"2020-06-03T08:48:51","slug":"gasto-publico-2008-a-2013-un-resumen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2014\/04\/10\/gasto-publico-2008-a-2013-un-resumen\/","title":{"rendered":"Gasto P\u00fablico de 2008 a 2013: un resumen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La Administraci\u00f3n P\u00fablica acaba de publicar las <strong>cuentas de gasto p\u00fablico en Espa\u00f1a de 2013<\/strong>. Antes tard\u00e1bamos m\u00e1s de un a\u00f1o y a veces dos. El a\u00f1o pasado cuatro meses. Este a\u00f1o <strong>en menos de tres meses ya tenemos las cuentas<\/strong> de 2013. Ya se ve que era posible hacerlo, era cuesti\u00f3n de voluntad pol\u00edtica o de que alguien (en este caso la UE, v\u00eda <a title=\"Eurostat\" href=\"http:\/\/epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu\/portal\/page\/portal\/eurostat\/home\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Eurostat<\/a>) te obligue a hacerlo. <strong>Creo que por primera vez\u00a0en la historia de Espa\u00f1a el sector p\u00fablico presenta sus cuentas al mismo tiempo que el sector privado<\/strong>. Enhorabuena a los gobernantes, aunque ya era hora.<\/p>\n<p>Resumo las cuentas de 2013 y a\u00f1os anteriores. Este art\u00edculo es una actualizaci\u00f3n del <a title=\"Gasto p\u00fablico 2012\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2013\/04\/30\/gasto-publico-2008-a-2012-un-resumen\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">post<\/a> publicado en abril de 2013 acerca de las cuentas de 2012. <strong>Los datos est\u00e1n en miles de millones (millardos) de euros<\/strong> y proceden de la <strong><a title=\"IGAE\" href=\"http:\/\/www.igae.pap.minhap.gob.es\/sitios\/igae\/es-ES\/Paginas\/inicio.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">IGAE<\/a><\/strong> (Intervenci\u00f3n General de la Administraci\u00f3n del Estado).<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3169\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3169\" style=\"width: 749px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2014\/04\/Gasto-P\u00fablico-Adeministraciones-P\u00fablicas.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-3169\" title=\"Gasto P\u00fablico Administraciones P\u00fablicas Espa\u00f1a\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2014\/04\/Gasto-P\u00fablico-Adeministraciones-P\u00fablicas.jpg\" alt=\"Gasto P\u00fablico Administraciones P\u00fablicas Espa\u00f1a\" width=\"749\" height=\"611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2014\/04\/Gasto-P\u00fablico-Adeministraciones-P\u00fablicas.jpg 749w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2014\/04\/Gasto-P\u00fablico-Adeministraciones-P\u00fablicas-300x244.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2014\/04\/Gasto-P\u00fablico-Adeministraciones-P\u00fablicas-624x509.jpg 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 749px) 100vw, 749px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3169\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Pulse para ampliar la tabla.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><b>A\u00f1os 2008 y 2009. Comienza la crisis y la expansi\u00f3n del gasto p\u00fablico.<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Ingresos: bajan mucho por la crisis, de 433 a 367: -66 o un 15%.<\/li>\n<li>Gastos: aumentan mucho, de 412 a 484: +71 o un 17%. Son los a\u00f1os del <strong>Plan E<\/strong> y similares. \u201cEl dinero p\u00fablico no es de nadie\u201d (\u00a1\u00a1\u00a1sic!!!).<\/li>\n<li>Las mayores subidas de gasto se producen en:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 60px\"><span style=\"font-size: 1rem;line-height: 1.714285714\">1. Pensiones, paro y otras prestaciones sociales: +31 (un 25%).<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 1rem;line-height: 1.714285714\">2. Salarios p\u00fablicos: +18 (un 17%).<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 1rem;line-height: 1.714285714\">3. Educaci\u00f3n y Salud: +6 (un 21%), con los mismos alumnos y enfermos.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 1rem;line-height: 1.714285714\">4. Todas las partidas de gasto corriente aumentan: +67 (un 19%).<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Pasamos de super\u00e1vit de +21 a d\u00e9ficit de -116. Y esos 116 hay que pedirlos prestados, lo que provocar\u00e1 la crisis de la prima de riesgo en los a\u00f1os siguientes<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>No se entiende que mientas el sector privado se ajusta el cintur\u00f3n, el sector p\u00fablico aumente el gasto tanto y tan irracionalmente.<\/li>\n<li>En cualquier pa\u00eds es muy dif\u00edcil bajar el gasto p\u00fablico; rebajar los +70 que ha aumentado en estos dos a\u00f1os ser\u00e1 tarea ardua\u2026. Y mientras no se rebajen, habr\u00e1 que pedirlos prestados.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>A\u00f1os 2010 y 2011. Comienzan los recortes\u2026 pero s\u00f3lo en inversi\u00f3n<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Aumentan los ingresos (+11 o un 3%) por la subida de impuestos y la ligera mejor\u00eda de la econom\u00eda.<\/li>\n<li>Aumentan los intereses de la deuda (+8 o un 42%) y las pensiones y paro (+9 o un 6%).<\/li>\n<li>Comienzan los recortes en salarios p\u00fablicos (-2 o un 2%) y en educaci\u00f3n-sanidad (-1 o un 4%). <strong>A pesar del ruido medi\u00e1tico, los recortes son nimios y m\u00e1s comparados con las enormes subidas de los dos a\u00f1os anteriores<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>La consecuencia es que <strong>el gasto corriente vuelve a aumentar en +12 o un 3%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>El \u00fanico recorte serio es en inversiones: -23 o un 37%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Como consecuencia, el gasto total (corriente e inversiones) baja en -5 o un 1%. <strong>Todos los recortes se quedan en una reducci\u00f3n del gasto de -5, comparado con una subida de +71 en los dos a\u00f1os anteriores<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>El d\u00e9ficit vuelve a rondar los 100\u2026 que hay que pedir prestados\u2026 y ya llevamos tres a\u00f1os pidiendo 100, cuando antes no ped\u00edamos nada.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>\u00a0<b>A\u00f1os 2012 y 2013: empieza el recorte en serio<\/b><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Los ingresos suben poco debido a la crisis (+8 o un 2%), a pesar de la fuerte subida de impuestos.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Se reducen, ya significativamente, los gastos de salarios p\u00fablicos (-8 o un 6%), compras (-6 o un 9%), educaci\u00f3n-sanidad (-3 o un 8%)<\/strong>. Parece bastante, pero comparado con las subidas de a\u00f1os anteriores, no es tanto.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Vuelven a aumentar los intereses (+9), ya que cada vez tenemos m\u00e1s deuda, y las pensiones-paro (+8), debido a la crisis y el aumento de desempleo<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>El resultado total es que, por primera vez en muchos a\u00f1os, el gasto corriente baja en -2, pero la reducci\u00f3n es nimia, apenas un 0,5%&#8230; nada.<\/li>\n<li>Se comprueba, pues, que <strong>bajar el gasto p\u00fablico es extremadamente dif\u00edcil<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Una vez m\u00e1s se recorta de manera muy significativa la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica (l\u00f3gico, no hay dinero), que baja en -17.<\/li>\n<li>El gasto total (corriente + inversi\u00f3n) baja en -20 o un 4%, lo que ya empieza a ser una reducci\u00f3n significativa.<\/li>\n<li><strong>El d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico pasa de 100 a 70. Es un buen avance, pero sigue siendo much\u00edsimo d\u00e9ficit\u2026 que hay que pedir prestado<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Perspectivas<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3168%2F&text=No+creo+que+los+gobiernos%2C+sean+del+color+que+sea%2C+hagan+m%E1s+recortes+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">No creo que los gobiernos, sean del color que sea, hagan m\u00e1s recortes <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>. De hecho, en 2013 ya no los ha habido.<\/li>\n<li><a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3168%2F&text=El+d%E9ficit+tendr%E1+que+disminuir+s%F3lo+v%EDa+aumento+de+ingresos+y+para+ello+es+necesario+que+mejore+significativamente+la+econom%EDa+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">El d\u00e9ficit tendr\u00e1 que disminuir s\u00f3lo v\u00eda aumento de ingresos y para ello es necesario que mejore significativamente la econom\u00eda <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>. Y, adem\u00e1s, habr\u00e1 que vigilar el gasto para que aumente muy poco (en torno al 1 o el 2%)<\/li>\n<li><a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3168%2F&text=Creo+%28pura+creencia%2C+sin+datos%29+que+nos+costar%E1+unos+3+o+m%E1s+bien+5+a%F1os+ponernos+en+niveles+de+d%E9ficit+razonables+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">Creo (pura creencia, sin datos) que nos costar\u00e1 unos 3 o m\u00e1s bien 5 a\u00f1os ponernos en niveles de d\u00e9ficit razonables <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>\u00a0(-30), quiz\u00e1 para el a\u00f1o 2016 o 2017.<\/li>\n<li>En definitiva, si esto fuera as\u00ed, <a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3168%2F&text=Nos+habr%E1+costado+8+o+9+a%F1os+el+recuperarnos+del+gasto+p%FAblico+desaforado+de+los+a%F1os+2008+y+2009+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">nos habr\u00e1 costado 8 o 9 a\u00f1os el recuperarnos del gasto p\u00fablico desaforado de los a\u00f1os 2008 y 2009 <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>. <strong>Los errores se pagan y, si son gordos, se pagan m\u00e1s<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iese.edu\/es\/claustro-investigacion\/claustro\/eduardo-martinez-abascal\/\">Eduardo Mart\u00ednez Abascal<\/a><\/span> es Profesor Ordinario del<span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iese.edu\/es\/\"> IESE<\/a> <\/span>en el \u00e1rea de <span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iese.edu\/es\/claustro-investigacion\/departamentos-academicos\/direccion-financiera\/\">Direcci\u00f3n Financiera<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Datos: gasto p\u00fablico en Espa\u00f1a 2008-13. Opini\u00f3n: nos costar\u00e1 8-9 a\u00f1os recuperarnos de la desmesura de gasto en 2009. Los errores se pagan. Y, si son gordos, se pagan m\u00e1s &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26211,26214],"tags":[14316,16157,13162,14321,26230],"class_list":["post-3168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gasto-publico-crisis-deuda","category-gestion-publica-politicas","tag-administracion-publica","tag-deficit","tag-deuda","tag-gasto-publico","tag-recorte-gasto-publico"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La Administraci\u00f3n acaba de publicar las cuentas de gasto p\u00fablico en Espa\u00f1a de 2013. 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