{"id":3482,"date":"2015-01-12T11:06:12","date_gmt":"2015-01-12T10:06:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/?p=3482"},"modified":"2015-01-12T11:07:24","modified_gmt":"2015-01-12T10:07:24","slug":"ya-se-ha-acabado-la-crisis-si-y-no","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2015\/01\/12\/ya-se-ha-acabado-la-crisis-si-y-no\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfYa se ha acabado la crisis? S\u00ed y no&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La prensa se hace eco estos d\u00edas del <strong>optimismo econ\u00f3mico del Gobierno<\/strong> que contrasta con el pesimismo de la oposici\u00f3n y de parte de los espa\u00f1oles. \u00bfY qui\u00e9n tiene raz\u00f3n? <strong>\u00bfDe verdad se ha acabado la crisis? La respuesta depende de lo que entendamos por \u201ccrisis\u201d<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>En el mundo econ\u00f3mico <strong>se habla de crisis cuando el PIB baja<\/strong>. El PIB es, <em>grosso modo<\/em>, como el salario medio (la renta per c\u00e1pita) que recibe cada ciudadano. Por tanto, <strong>si baja, en promedio todos ganamos menos. Sin embargo, la realidad es que unos dejan de ganar en absoluto y el resto sigue m\u00e1s o menos igual<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Pues bien, <a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3482%2F&text=Se+entiende+que+la+crisis+ha+acabado+cuando+el+PIB+empieza+a+subir.+En+ese+sentido+podemos+decir+que+se+ha+acabado+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">se entiende que la crisis ha acabado cuando el PIB empieza a subir. En ese sentido podemos decir que se ha acabado <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>El PIB lleva subiendo desde el tercer trimestre del 2013<\/strong>, y volver\u00e1 a hacerlo en este cuarto trimestre del 2014; en total habr\u00e1 sido a\u00f1o y medio de crecimiento. <strong>Llev\u00e1bamos sin crecer desde oto\u00f1o del 2008<\/strong>, es decir cinco a\u00f1os hasta oto\u00f1o del 2013. <strong>Parece que se ha acabado la largu\u00edsima traves\u00eda del desierto<\/strong>, aunque ahora el crecimiento sea todav\u00eda liviano.<\/li>\n<li><strong>La gente adem\u00e1s parece m\u00e1s optimista, pues el consumo tambi\u00e9n ha subido<\/strong> en cada trimestre de 2014 y por primera vez desde 2008.<\/li>\n<li><strong>La inversi\u00f3n empresarial tambi\u00e9n ha empezado a crecer<\/strong> en 2014.<\/li>\n<li>El a\u00f1o pasado ha sido el primero desde mediados del 2008 en que <strong>se ha creado empleo<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Por \u00faltimo, y muy importante, <strong>las empresas est\u00e1n mejor que en a\u00f1os anteriores, empieza a fluir el cr\u00e9dito<\/strong> y pueden empezar a crecer, aunque poco a poco, dependiendo de que nos animemos a consumir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>En fin, en mi modesta opini\u00f3n y <strong>con los datos en la mano, no se puede decir que estamos en crisis<\/strong>. Esta es la cara de la moneda. Y ahora viene la cruz.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Para muchos la crisis contin\u00faa<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>La cruz es que <strong>al que est\u00e1 en paro todo esto le trae sin cuidado y lo \u00fanico que ve es que antes ten\u00eda empleo y ahora no lo tiene<\/strong>. Y ve que s\u00ed, que se crea empleo, pero tan poco que a \u00e9l no le llega. <strong>S\u00ed, en promedio vamos mejor, pero esto no va por promedios<\/strong>: los que tienen empleo, ven las cosas con m\u00e1s optimismo que antes y empiezan a consumir, pero el que no lo tiene se desespera y m\u00e1s si oye decir que la cosa mejora, porque \u00e9l o ella no ven en su vida ninguna mejor\u00eda.<\/p>\n<p>La realidad es que <strong>desde junio del 2008 a diciembre del 2013 se perdieron casi tres millones de empleos<\/strong> (datos de afiliados a la Seguridad Social). La buena noticia es que desde diciembre 2013 a diciembre 2014 se han creado casi 500.000. Pero claro, quedan casi otros 2,5 millones que no han recuperado su trabajo. <a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3482%2F&text=Y+a+este+ritmo+de+medio+mill%F3n+de+empleos+al+a%F1o%2C+nos+llevar%E1+cinco+a%F1os+m%E1s+volver+a+donde+est%E1bamos+en+2008+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">Y a este ritmo de medio mill\u00f3n de empleos al a\u00f1o, nos llevar\u00e1 cinco a\u00f1os m\u00e1s volver a donde est\u00e1bamos en 2008 <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n<a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3482%2F&text=Son+muchos+los+que+dicen+que+la+crisis+no+se+acaba+hasta+que+se+acabe+con+el+desempleo+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">Son muchos los que dicen que la crisis no se acaba hasta que se acabe con el desempleo <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>. Cierto, <strong>si la econom\u00eda no sirve para las personas, algo no estamos haciendo bien, o algo deber\u00edamos hacer mejor<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>Versi\u00f3n editada y actualizada\u00a0del art\u00edculo publicado en\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.elperiodico.com\/es\/noticias\/opinion\/acaba-crisis-3801626\" target=\"_blank\">El Peri\u00f3dico<\/a>\u00a0el 25\u00a0de diciembre\u00a0de 2014.<br \/>\n<em>Criterios utilizados para la aprobaci\u00f3n de\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/moderacion-de-comentarios\/\" target=\"_blank\">comentarios<\/a>.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Con los datos en la mano, la crisis parece que ha acabado. Pero, aunque el PIB crezca, aunque se cree empleo, para los parados la crisis contin\u00faa y lo har\u00e1 durante los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os, puesto que a un ritmo de creaci\u00f3n de 500.000 nuevos puestos de trabajo anuales, nos llevar\u00e1 cinco a\u00f1os recuperar los niveles de empleo de 2008 &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26212],"tags":[12820,12828,162,12887,12850],"class_list":["post-3482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economia-crisis-economica","tag-consumo","tag-crecimiento","tag-crisis","tag-empleo","tag-paro"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Te\u00f3ricamente, la crisis ha acabado. 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