{"id":3528,"date":"2015-03-11T11:59:32","date_gmt":"2015-03-11T10:59:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/?p=3528"},"modified":"2015-03-17T13:56:35","modified_gmt":"2015-03-17T12:56:35","slug":"que-efectos-esta-produciendo-la-quantitative-easing-qe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2015\/03\/11\/que-efectos-esta-produciendo-la-quantitative-easing-qe\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQue efectos est\u00e1 produciendo la Quantitative Easing (QE)?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Esta semana (9 de Marzo 2015) se inicia <strong>el plan de compra de bonos p\u00fablicos<\/strong> <em>(sovereign) <\/em><strong>por parte del BCE: unos 60 millardos al mes<\/strong> (miles de millones o <em>billion <\/em>americano) hasta septiembre de 2016. <strong>Total previsible: 1.100 millardos, equivalente a un 11% del PIB del \u00e1rea euro y un 22% del total de bonos existente<\/strong>; aunque es posible que al final no se llegue a esta cantidad. <strong>Es el llamado <em>Quantitative Easing<\/em> <em>(QE)<\/em> o expansi\u00f3n cuantitativa<\/strong> (nombre muy raro por cierto y nada descriptivo).<\/p>\n<a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3528%2F&text=El+mero+anuncio+de+la+QE%2C+en+enero%2C+ya+ha+producido+efectos+significativos+en+los+mercados+de+deuda+y+divisa+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">El mero anuncio de la QE, en enero, ya ha producido efectos significativos en los mercados de deuda y divisa <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>. Es previsible que esos efectos contin\u00faen.<\/p>\n<p><strong>El BCE anunci\u00f3 sus medidas d\u00edas antes de las elecciones griegas<\/strong>. Gan\u00f3 <strong>Syriza<\/strong>. Hubo l\u00edo. <strong>Y los mercados ni se inmutaron, no subi\u00f3 la prima de riesgo, no se habl\u00f3 de la ruptura del euro, etc.<\/strong> La raz\u00f3n es sencilla, ning\u00fan <em>trader<\/em> vender\u00e1 bonos (ni griegos, ni espa\u00f1oles) con la esperanza de recomprar a menor precio, porque sabe que <strong>el BCE va a comprar cantidades masivas y con ello el precio del bono no va a bajar<\/strong>. <strong>Lo de Syriza ocurre en 2012 y hubi\u00e9ramos tenido un l\u00edo monumental<\/strong>. La diferencia es que en 2012 el BCE no actu\u00f3 y ahora s\u00ed lo ha hecho.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\u00bfQu\u00e9 est\u00e1 ocurriendo y ocurrir\u00e1? <\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Los bancos vender\u00e1n parte de su cartera de bonos p\u00fablicos<\/strong>, que es abundante; en Espa\u00f1a, por ejemplo, son 280 millardos, frente a los 100 que ten\u00edan antes de la crisis. Obtendr\u00e1n\u00a0un buen beneficio, pues venden a precio alt\u00edsimo y que ya no a va a subir m\u00e1s. Los tipos no pueden bajar del 0,35% (tipo alem\u00e1n) o del 1.35% (tipo espa\u00f1ol). Por tanto, <a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3528%2F&text=No+hay+ning%FAn+potencial+de+subida+de+precio+del+bono+y+s%ED+potencial+de+bajada+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">no hay ning\u00fan potencial de subida de precio del bono y s\u00ed potencial de bajada <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a><strong>. Ahora es el momento de vender<\/strong>. El beneficio por estas plusval\u00edas vendr\u00e1 bien a los bancos.<\/li>\n<li>Una vez vendidos los bonos, <strong>los bancos tendr\u00e1n cantidad de dinero para poder prestar a empresas y familias y a tipos m\u00e1s altos que los que consiguen invirtiendo en bonos del estado. Esto aumentar\u00e1 el cr\u00e9dito y ayudar\u00e1 a la reactivaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica.<\/strong> Adem\u00e1s, como habr\u00e1 mucho cr\u00e9dito disponible, los tipos de inter\u00e9s de los pr\u00e9stamos ser\u00e1n razonables y asumibles por empresas y familias.<\/li>\n<li><strong>No habr\u00e1 volatilidad en los mercados de deuda<\/strong> (grandes subidas y bajadas, episodios de p\u00e1nico, etc), ya que hay una demanda sostenida de bonos que har\u00e1 que el precio se mantenga alto y los tipos bajos.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tendremos tipos bajos durante una temporada<\/strong>. Aunque, ojo, estos tipos tan bajos (el 0,35% en Alemania y 1,35% en Espa\u00f1a) son absurdamente bajos y <strong>tarde o temprano tendr\u00e1n que volver a su nivel hist\u00f3rico promedio, alrededor del 4%.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>El cambio euro\/d\u00f3lar seguir\u00e1 en torno a 1,1 o incluso 1, lo que es m\u00e1s normal que el absurdamente alto 1,4 euros por d\u00f3lar<\/strong> que hemos tenido en a\u00f1os anteriores. Esto <strong>favorecer\u00e1 las exportaciones del \u00e1rea euro<\/strong> al resto del mundo <strong>y con ello el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico<\/strong>. El d\u00f3lar bajo se produjo por una decisi\u00f3n de la FED americana junto a la inacci\u00f3n del BCE. <a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3528%2F&text=A+EE.UU.%A0el+d%F3lar+bajo+le+sirvi%F3+para+mejorar+su+balanza+de+pagos+y+a+Europa+para+dificultar%A0la+recuperaci%F3n+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">A EE.UU.\u00a0el d\u00f3lar bajo le sirvi\u00f3 para mejorar su balanza de pagos y a Europa para dificultar\u00a0la recuperaci\u00f3n <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a>\u00a0econ\u00f3mica (es dif\u00edcil vender fuera con un euro caro). Ahora el BCE, gracias a Dios, ha cambiado de opini\u00f3n.<br \/>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>Criterios utilizados para la aprobaci\u00f3n de\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/moderacion-de-comentarios\/\" target=\"_blank\">comentarios<\/a>.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Esta semana (9 de Marzo 2015) se inicia el plan de compra de bonos p\u00fablicos (sovereign) por parte del BCE: unos 60 millardos al mes (miles de millones o billion americano) hasta septiembre de 2016. Total previsible: 1.100 millardos, equivalente a un 11% del PIB del \u00e1rea euro y un 22% del total de bonos [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26210,26212],"tags":[10626,61100],"class_list":["post-3528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-banca-crisis-financiera","category-economia-crisis-economica","tag-banco-central-europeo","tag-quantitative-easing"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La Quantitative Easing (QE) consistir\u00e1 en la compa de bonos por parte del BCE de Draghi. \u00bfC\u00f3mo afectar\u00e1 a la econom\u00eda europea? \u00bfQue efectos tiene y tendr\u00e1?\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Eduardo Mart\u00ednez Abascal\"\/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2015\/03\/11\/que-efectos-esta-produciendo-la-quantitative-easing-qe\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 5.0.1.1\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Econom\u00eda para todos - Eduardo Mart\u00ednez Abascal\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00bfQue efectos est\u00e1 produciendo la Quantitative Easing (QE)? - Econom\u00eda para todos\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La Quantitative Easing (QE) consistir\u00e1 en la compa de bonos por parte del BCE de Draghi. \u00bfC\u00f3mo afectar\u00e1 a la econom\u00eda europea? \u00bfQue efectos tiene y tendr\u00e1?\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2015\/03\/11\/que-efectos-esta-produciendo-la-quantitative-easing-qe\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-03-11T10:59:32+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-03-17T12:56:35+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u00bfQue efectos est\u00e1 produciendo la Quantitative Easing (QE)? - Econom\u00eda para todos\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"La Quantitative Easing (QE) consistir\u00e1 en la compa de bonos por parte del BCE de Draghi. \u00bfC\u00f3mo afectar\u00e1 a la econom\u00eda europea? \u00bfQue efectos tiene y tendr\u00e1?\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"BlogPosting\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/2015\\\/03\\\/11\\\/que-efectos-esta-produciendo-la-quantitative-easing-qe\\\/#blogposting\",\"name\":\"\\u00bfQue efectos est\\u00e1 produciendo la Quantitative Easing (QE)? - Econom\\u00eda para todos\",\"headline\":\"\\u00bfQue efectos est\\u00e1 produciendo la Quantitative Easing (QE)?\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/author\\\/emartinezabascal\\\/#author\"},\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/#organization\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-03-11T11:59:32+01:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-03-17T13:56:35+01:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"es-ES\",\"commentCount\":2,\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/2015\\\/03\\\/11\\\/que-efectos-esta-produciendo-la-quantitative-easing-qe\\\/#webpage\"},\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/2015\\\/03\\\/11\\\/que-efectos-esta-produciendo-la-quantitative-easing-qe\\\/#webpage\"},\"articleSection\":\"Banca. 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