{"id":3655,"date":"2015-11-11T16:33:06","date_gmt":"2015-11-11T15:33:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/?p=3655"},"modified":"2020-06-03T09:44:00","modified_gmt":"2020-06-03T08:44:00","slug":"como-calcula-el-deficit-publico-la-comision-europea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2015\/11\/11\/como-calcula-el-deficit-publico-la-comision-europea\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00f3mo calcula el d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico la Comisi\u00f3n Europea"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2015\/11\/04\/previsiones-de-deficit-publico-de-2015-espana-y-la-ce\/\">semana pasada<\/a> habl\u00e9 de las <strong>previsiones de d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico hechas por el Gobierno de Espa\u00f1a y por la CE<\/strong> (Comisi\u00f3n europea, o gobierno de Europa\u2026m\u00e1s o menos). La discrepancia no era muy grande en el 2015 (un 4,2% vs 4,5% del PIB) y algo mayor en 2016 (un 2,8% vs 3,5%). Ahora explicar\u00e9 <strong>de d\u00f3nde proceden las diferencias<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Las fuentes que he utilizado son:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Nota de prensa de la <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/economy_finance\/economic_governance\/sgp\/budgetary_plans\/index_en.htm\">Comisi\u00f3n Europea<\/a><\/strong>.\u00a0Es breve (2 p\u00e1ginas), con algunos porcentajes y nada explicativa. Se supone que deber\u00eda ser divulgativa, es decir explicar el porqu\u00e9 de las diferencias de d\u00e9ficit, pero no explica nada.<\/li>\n<li><strong>El proyecto del plan presupuestario de Espa\u00f1a 2016<\/strong>. Son 68 p\u00e1ginas, un rollo; pero tiene la ventaja de que con 68 p\u00e1ginas te resumen los cientos de p\u00e1ginas del presupuesto.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Opini\u00f3n de la CE<\/strong>, cortito (6 p\u00e1ginas en ingl\u00e9s), tampoco da cifras, s\u00f3lo porcentajes.<\/li>\n<li><em>Working Document<\/em> de la CE, que acompa\u00f1a la opini\u00f3n. Son 16 p\u00e1ginas en ingl\u00e9s tambi\u00e9n llenas de porcentajes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>La nota de prensa contiene los links de acceso a estos documentos (\u00a1bien por la trasparencia de la CE!). Pero NO merece la pena leerlos. Mi asistente de investigaci\u00f3n <strong>David Tamayo<\/strong> ha tenido la paciencia de leerse todo y resaltar los n\u00fameros relevantes en los que basar\u00e9 mi explicaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>Y dicho esto voy al grano.<strong> \u00bfPor qu\u00e9 difieren el gobierno espa\u00f1ol y la CE en las estimaciones de d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico de Espa\u00f1a para 2015 y 2016?<\/strong> Pues muy sencillo, <strong>Gobierno y CE coinciden en su estimaci\u00f3n de ingreso p\u00fablico<\/strong> (37,8% del PIB). <strong>Pero difieren en la de gasto p\u00fablico<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Seg\u00fan la CE, el gasto p\u00fablico de Espa\u00f1a en 2015 ser\u00e1 del 42,4%, mientras que el Gobierno espa\u00f1ol dice ser\u00e1 42,1%.<\/strong> <strong>Es una diferencia del 0,3%, es decir nada<\/strong>, pues el n\u00famero empieza por cero. En <em>billions<\/em> esto son unos 3 <em>billion<\/em>, que sobre un gasto p\u00fablico de 460 billion es nada de nada. <strong>El gobierno f\u00e1cilmente puede ahorrar 3 <em>billions<\/em> (basta posponer alguna inversi\u00f3n)<\/strong> o gast\u00e1rselos de m\u00e1s. Vaya, es esto, un 0,3%. <strong>\u00bfPara qu\u00e9 pedalear sobre esta historia?<\/strong> Para 2016 la CE prev\u00e9 un gasto del 41,4% del PIB y el gobierno del 40,7%. Son 0,7 puntos de PIB o unos 8 <em>billion<\/em>. Nos es mucha diferencia a un a\u00f1o vista.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Screen-Shot-2015-11-11-at-13.53.16.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3656\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Screen-Shot-2015-11-11-at-13.53.16.png\" alt=\"Objetivos de D\u00e9ficit Espa\u00f1a Comisi\u00f3n Europea\" width=\"744\" height=\"451\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Screen-Shot-2015-11-11-at-13.53.16.png 1058w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Screen-Shot-2015-11-11-at-13.53.16-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Screen-Shot-2015-11-11-at-13.53.16-1024x621.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Screen-Shot-2015-11-11-at-13.53.16-500x303.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 744px) 100vw, 744px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Yo personalmente <strong>prefiero ver los n\u00fameros de gasto, ingreso y d\u00e9ficit en euros y no en porcentajes<\/strong>. Para ello necesitamos una previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento real de PIB e inflaci\u00f3n, de modo que podamos calcular el PIB nominal. Las previsiones de gobierno y CE difieren ligeramente (ver cuadro).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3660\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Evoluci\u00f3n-del-crecimiento-del-PIB-en-Espa\u00f1a1.png\" alt=\"Evoluci\u00f3n del crecimiento del PIB en Espa\u00f1a\" width=\"1074\" height=\"345\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Evoluci\u00f3n-del-crecimiento-del-PIB-en-Espa\u00f1a1.png 1074w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Evoluci\u00f3n-del-crecimiento-del-PIB-en-Espa\u00f1a1-300x96.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Evoluci\u00f3n-del-crecimiento-del-PIB-en-Espa\u00f1a1-1024x329.png 1024w, https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/files\/2015\/11\/Evoluci\u00f3n-del-crecimiento-del-PIB-en-Espa\u00f1a1-500x161.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1074px) 100vw, 1074px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Seg\u00fan el gobierno, el crecimiento ser\u00e1 del 3,3% y 3,0% (en 2015 y 2016) y seg\u00fan la CE, del 3,0% y 2,7%. Tampoco hay mucha diferencia. Cualquiera de los dos (gobierno o CE) puede acertar; aunque<strong> en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os ha acertado m\u00e1s el gobierno: la recuperaci\u00f3n en Espa\u00f1a ha sido m\u00e1s fuerte de lo que los economistas de la CE pronosticaban<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Total, que las cifras de gasto p\u00fablico son las que aparecen arriba. Nos seguiremos gastando unos 460 <em>billion<\/em>. No hay ninguna reducci\u00f3n de gasto. <strong>Los ingresos p\u00fablicos aumentar\u00e1n por la continua mejora de la econom\u00eda y como consecuencia el d\u00e9ficit se reducir\u00e1<\/strong>. <strong>Mi pregunta es: oiga <a class=\"inline-twitter-link inline-tweet-click\" href=\"#\" onclick=\"inline_tweet_sharer_open_win('https:\\\/\\\/twitter.com\\\/intent\\\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblog.iese.edu%2Fmartinezabascal%2Fwp-json%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fposts%2F3655%2F&text=Si+con+la+econom%EDa+creciendo+al+3%25+usted+tiene+d%E9ficit%2C+%BFcu%E1ndo+espera+tener+super%E1vit%3F+');\" title=\"Tweet This!\">si con la econom\u00eda creciendo al 3% usted tiene d\u00e9ficit, \u00bfcu\u00e1ndo espera tener super\u00e1vit? <span class=\"non-dashicons\"> <\/span><\/a><\/strong>\u00a0Porque la econom\u00eda no puede crecer m\u00e1s de un 3%. <strong>Es como si una empresa estuviera a tope de ventas y siguiera perdiendo dinero<\/strong>. De aqu\u00ed se deduce que el problema est\u00e1 en el gasto (creo yo). Pero a eso nadie le meter\u00e1 mano, pues se pierden votos.\u00a0 <strong>\u00bfY qui\u00e9n lo paga? pues la clase media asalariada<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iese.edu\/es\/claustro-investigacion\/claustro\/eduardo-martinez-abascal\/\">Eduardo Mart\u00ednez Abascal<\/a><\/span> es Profesor Ordinario del<span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iese.edu\/es\/\"> IESE<\/a> <\/span>en el \u00e1rea de <span style=\"color: #ff0000\"><a style=\"color: #ff0000\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iese.edu\/es\/claustro-investigacion\/departamentos-academicos\/direccion-financiera\/\">Direcci\u00f3n Financiera<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La semana pasada habl\u00e9 de las previsiones de d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico hechas por el Gobierno de Espa\u00f1a y por la CE (Comisi\u00f3n europea, o gobierno de Europa\u2026m\u00e1s o menos). La discrepancia no era muy grande en el 2015 (un 4,2% vs 4,5% del PIB) y algo mayor en 2016 (un 2,8% vs 3,5%). Ahora explicar\u00e9 de [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":166,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[71234,26215],"tags":[13154,13142,1588,19028],"class_list":["post-3655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-administracion-gasto-publico","category-europa-y-el-euro","tag-comision-europea","tag-deficit-publico","tag-espana","tag-pib"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Las discrepanacias entre el Gobierno y la cComisi\u00f3n Europea sobre el d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico espa\u00f1ol son m\u00ednimas y cualquiera de los dos puede tener raz\u00f3n.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Eduardo Mart\u00ednez Abascal\"\/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2015\/11\/11\/como-calcula-el-deficit-publico-la-comision-europea\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 5.0.1.1\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Econom\u00eda para todos - Eduardo Mart\u00ednez Abascal\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"C\u00f3mo calcula el d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico la Comisi\u00f3n Europea - Econom\u00eda para todos\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Las discrepanacias entre el Gobierno y la cComisi\u00f3n Europea sobre el d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico espa\u00f1ol son m\u00ednimas y cualquiera de los dos puede tener raz\u00f3n.\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blog.iese.edu\/martinezabascal\/2015\/11\/11\/como-calcula-el-deficit-publico-la-comision-europea\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-11-11T15:33:06+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-06-03T08:44:00+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"C\u00f3mo calcula el d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico la Comisi\u00f3n Europea - Econom\u00eda para todos\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Las discrepanacias entre el Gobierno y la cComisi\u00f3n Europea sobre el d\u00e9ficit p\u00fablico espa\u00f1ol son m\u00ednimas y cualquiera de los dos puede tener raz\u00f3n.\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"BlogPosting\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/2015\\\/11\\\/11\\\/como-calcula-el-deficit-publico-la-comision-europea\\\/#blogposting\",\"name\":\"C\\u00f3mo calcula el d\\u00e9ficit p\\u00fablico la Comisi\\u00f3n Europea - Econom\\u00eda para todos\",\"headline\":\"C\\u00f3mo calcula el d\\u00e9ficit p\\u00fablico la Comisi\\u00f3n Europea\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/author\\\/emartinezabascal\\\/#author\"},\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/files\\\/2015\\\/11\\\/Screen-Shot-2015-11-11-at-13.53.16.png\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/2015\\\/11\\\/11\\\/como-calcula-el-deficit-publico-la-comision-europea\\\/#articleImage\",\"width\":1058,\"height\":642,\"caption\":\"Objetivos de D\\u00e9ficit Espa\\u00f1a Comisi\\u00f3n Europea\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-11-11T16:33:06+01:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-06-03T09:44:00+01:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"es-ES\",\"commentCount\":1,\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/2015\\\/11\\\/11\\\/como-calcula-el-deficit-publico-la-comision-europea\\\/#webpage\"},\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blog.iese.edu\\\/martinezabascal\\\/2015\\\/11\\\/11\\\/como-calcula-el-deficit-publico-la-comision-europea\\\/#webpage\"},\"articleSection\":\"Administraci\\u00f3n. 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