BizKnowledge Watch

The IMF has just published chapters 3 and 4 of the October 2012 World Economic Outlook Report, titled “Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth”.

Chapter 3, “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: 100 Years of Dealing with Public Debt Overhangs,” analyzes how throughout the past century, numerous advanced economies have faced public debt burdens as high, or higher, than those prevailing today. The research concludes that the first priority today must be to complement fiscal consolidation with measures to support growth, especially, very accommodative monetary policy and structural reforms.

Chapter 4, “Resilience in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Will It Last?,”. Many emerging market and developing economies have done well over the past decade and through the global financial crisis, but the question on policymakers’ minds now is whether this strong performance will last. There are reasons for optimism, including improved policymaking and greater “policy space”—room to respond to shocks without undermining sustainability.

Access Chapter 3 here.

Access Chapter 4 here.

The IMF has just published chapters 3 and 4 of the October 2012 Global Financial Stability Report, titled “Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reforms”.

Chapter 3, “The Reform Agenda: An Interim Report on Progress Toward a Safer Financial System,” examines whether the regulatory reforms designed to make the financial system safer are moving the system in the correct direction, using a benchmark set of features that include financial institutions and markets that are more transparent, less complex, and less leveraged. The analysis suggests that progress has been limited so far, in part because many of the reforms are still in the early stages of implementation.

Chapter 4, “Changing Global Financial Structures: Can They Improve Economic Outcomes?,” evaluates how aspects of current changes to financial structure, including those elicited from regulatory reforms, may be associated with economic outcomes. Both chapters stress that the success of measures to produce a safer financial system depend on effective implementation of reforms and strong supervision

Access Chapter 3 here.

Access Chapter 4 here.

The IMF has just released three reports, the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), “New Setbacks, Further Policy Action Needed;” the update to the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), “Intense Financial Risks: Time for Action;” and the Fiscal Monitor, “Nurturing Credibility While Managing Risks to Growth.”

According to the WEO, an already sluggish global recovery shows signs of further weakness, mainly because of continuing financial problems in Europe and slower-than-expected growth in emerging economies. The Outlook projects that the global economy will grow 3.5 percent this year, down 0.1 percentage points from the April forecast, and 3.9 percent in 2013, 0.2 percentage points lower.

The update of the GFSR said that risks to financial stability increased in the second quarter of 2012 due to the continued slow global recovery and fears about the quality of bank assets in Europe.

According to the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, fiscal adjustment in both advanced and emerging economies is proceeding as expected.

Access World Economic Outlook here.

Access Global Financial Stability Report here.

Access Fiscal Monitor here.

The IMF has just published the “2012 Article IV Consultation with Spain. Concluding Statement of IMF Mission”.

The report describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the conclusion of certain missions (official staff visits, in most cases to member countries). Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, and as part of other staff reviews of economic developments.

Read the full text here.

The IMF has just published the Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa titled “Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty”.

According to the report Sub-Saharan Africa continues to record strong economic growth, despite the weaker global economic environment.

Regional output rose by 5 percent in 2011, with growth set to increase slightly in 2012, helped by still-strong commodity prices, new resource exploitation, and the improved domestic conditions that have underpinned several years of solid trend growth in the region’s low-income countries.

But there is variation in performance across the region, with output in middle-income countries tracking more closely the global slowdown and with some sub-regions adversely affected, at least temporarily, by drought. Threats to the outlook include the risk of intensified financial stresses in the euro area spilling over into a further slowing of the global economy and the possibility of an oil price surge triggered by rising geopolitical tensions.

The REO full text is available here.