PwC’s has just released the Global Consumer Index (GCI). According to the index growth in global consumer spending is has been slowing – but the latest value of CGI suggests that the slowdown may have eased in October. This may lead to a gradual recovery in 2013.
The index is a leading indicator of trends in the global consumer cycle. It presents the results in two ways:
• Growth: this is the current year-on-year growth rate of the index. This declined for five consecutive months over the summer, although the latest value shows it ticking up to 1.7% in October, from 1.5% in September. This is significantly below the long-run average value of 2.8%, and the recent figures are the lowest since the end of the financial crisis.
• Momentum: this looks at what annual growth would be if the index were to grow at the rate of the last three months for a whole year. Following four consecutive and sharp monthly falls, this briefly turned negative in August. The latest value shows it recovering slightly to 1.0% in October from 0.2% in September. This is a relatively good story, as had the Momentum score stayed negative it may have implied a double dip in the consumer spending cycle.
Download the GCI here.