Carbon Markets

Carbon markets and the corresponding ES, often considered air regulation, are one of the longest-standing tools in the fight against climate change. Strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would limit climate change and thus, mitigate the shocks that accompany it.

Given its condition as a transboundary issue, responses have normally come through international proposals. For instance, one of the paths has been the establishment of an international carbon market to put a price on carbon dioxide. The roots of this market date back to the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, when countries joined an international treaty that later transformed into a regime, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Since then, this regime has explored ways through which the global rise in temperatures could be reversed. Fast forwarding a bit, in 2000, the Kyoto Protocol introduced the first carbon offsets. These offsets, named Certified Emission Reduction units (CERs), are tradeable units among nations equivalent to one ton of carbon and an instrument called the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) guarantees their exchange and integrity. The Kyoto Protocol established the first compliance international offsetting carbon market and set the precedent for a new wave of smaller-scale regional and national carbon markets.

Initial ambitions quickly became unrealistic, making the commitments for the second phase of the Protocol,  from 2013-2020, unachievable. The uneven decarbonization commitments between industrialized and developing countries made the second period of the Protocol unachievable and called for a renewed vision of global inclusion in emission reductions. This was finalized during COP 21, when the Paris Agreement was conceived and a global ambition goal of keeping the increase of global average temperature below 2ºC above pre-industrial levels and making efforts to limit at 1.5ºC. These targets have further accelerated the rate at which they resort to emission trading schemes (ETSs) or similar tools such as carbon taxes (CTs).

 

Voluntary Carbon Markets 

Beyond the compliance offsetting market, the Kyoto Protocol also set in motion a voluntary offsetting scheme for countries, companies and others willing to compensate for some or all of their emissions. The purposes that they have for doing so are variate, and are obviously correlated with the identity of the actor.  To make a distinction from the offsets regulated under the CDM, credits in the Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCM) are called Verified Emission Reduction units (VERs) as they are verified by external bodies not related to the UN and remain largely unregulated at present yet with potential to become the largest tool to counter climate change.

VERs fall into two main categories: they can aim to reduce or avoid emissions from current sources or they can be removal or sequestration credits that take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. The image below unfolds more thoroughly the abundant types of offsets.

 

The urgency to deal with climate change have led to the creation of severely privately managed standards , with each having unique rules that all projects must follow in order to be certified. A central role is played by these standards, i.e. Verra and the Gold Standard. Besides these actors,  the voluntary carbon credit ecosystem is composed of many other actors represented in the scheme below, strictly based in the works of Paia Consulting. The arrows represent the direction of the capital flow.

 

The image below provides a more visual representation of the layers of the VCM.

The evolution of the prices per ton of carbon avoided/sequestered/captured have remained low as this market has suffered from mismatches between supply and demand. Nonetheless, VCM experienced quite a notorious growth between the years 2019 and 2021, reaching about $1bn per year in annual transactionsAfter the Paris Agreement, the VCM moved beyond its sole role as an emission reduction facilitator, towards an incubator for innovation of non-state mitigation mechanisms having to deal with fewer bottlenecks than the overly strict and complex CDM. On the other hand, this looseness in terms of regulation has also been an impediment for this market to scale up and meet the ever-growing demand. An article published by The Guardian based on a joined study found that more than 90% of Verra-certified carbon-avoided credits are worthless. Supply of these credits tanked by 32% in 2022. Generated VERs which can potentially have unreliable offset claims have been named “phantom credits”. Questionable claims due to the lack of regulation is only one of the downturns that this market has suffered throughout 2022. Other issues reside in the fragmented supply of credits as a result of the multiple standards and the location of the projects.
Despite the latest downturns,  Bain & Company and BloombergNEF provided some of the keys for the VCM to unleash its full potential. Firstly,  a robust supply of high-quality credits is necessary. In the second half of 2022 governments and regulatory bodies showed interest in regulating VCMs and have gone from holding meetings to launching public consultations. This is the case of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC), the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC), and the International Organization for Securities Commissions (IOSCO).  Moreover, two international organizations were particularly created to address the issues of supply and demand this market faces. Those organizations,  the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) and the Voluntary Carbon Markets Initiative (VCMI) were stood up in 2021. This joined effort, if done well, could provide the desired guardrails for these markets to scale and unlock the potential $1tn that this market could be worth by 2037 according to BloombergNEF.