While I was enjoying the Doing Good Doing Well conference on Friday and Saturday, the world appeared to be starting to change once again. Events in the Ukraine and Venezuela over the week-end have the potential to sharply re-draw the geo-political map in two critical parts of the world and are also deeply linked to the issue of energy.
Ukraine: The cost of freedom
Ten years after its orange revolution, Ukranians went to the streets months ago to protest against what appeared to be a hijacking of their dream of becoming a normal, free, European country. After President Viktor Yanukovitch’s interior ministry opened fire on protesters on Thursday, the BBC cites sources saying that 77 people died on both sides as the situation deteriorated.
In the span of 72 hours a political compromise was made but then rejected by protesters resulting in the opposition politicians taking control of the government in Kiev and releasing Yulia Tymoshenko who had been jailed by Yanukovitch.
Venezuela
In Venezuela, the BBC reports that 10 people have died in a series of protests against the government of Nicolas Maduro who narrowly beat opposition candidate Henrique Capriles in an questionable election in April. Capriles never accepted the election result and Venezuelans appear to be protesting the economic and security situation as well as Maduro’s government.
Gas or oil?
As mentioned in a previous post, at the core of its relations to Europe lies Russia’s export of natural gas. Most of the gas runs through pipelines through the Ukraine and the Ukraine is also critical for Russia as the current home of most of the Black Sea Fleet as well as a source of steel, coal and grains like barley, corn and wheat.
Venezuela, according to a Bloomberg report in 2012, has the world’s largest known oil reserves and exported 40% of its oil to the Unites States in 2011 according to the EIA. Nicolas Maduro claims that protests against the regime are in fact financed by right wing interest allied with the U.S.
As discussed in an earlier post, record gas production in the United States due in part to the exploitation of shale gas has made it possible to consider energy independence for the United States and even it becoming a new exporter of gas and oil.
Thailand: No impact, no headlines
While the Ukraine and Venezuela go through their particular trauma, Thailand’s government is also being besieged by anti-government protesters who are being shot at and bombed by unidentified killers according to CNN. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has promised to catch the murderers who are thought to be allied with her brother, the former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Unlike Venezuela and the Ukraine, Thailand imports rather than exports energy and the conflict between the pro and anti Shinawatra factions appears to have little to do with the larger geopolitical discussion or the world’s energy balance.
More on this next week!