Geo-engineering: Fact, Fantasy, or Conspiracy?

These last few weeks have been particularly warm in Barcelona and in fact, 2015 is shaping up to be the hottest year ever recorded according to the latest report from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Despite the excellent work that literally thousands of  diplomats and climate specialists are doing in preparing for the climate talks in Paris this December, a number of serious people are starting to question whether the international community will find a way to slow or stop the process of global warming or climate change.

As discussed from time to time in this blog, the central challenge is to change the energy mix and consumption patterns in the developing world while at the same time accommodating the economic aspirations of hundreds of millions of people in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

While much is happening on a number of fronts, there is a growing conviction on the part of some scientists and engineers that whatever happens in Paris and in the next decade or so will be too little to late and more ambitious steps will have to be taken to keep the earth habitable for humanity. Fixing the problem with a technological solution is often called geo-engineering and this will be the first in a series of posts on the topic.

Geo-engineering

Oxford University has had a program on the subject since 2010 not advocate such a solution but to promote “conducting research into the social, ethical and technical aspects of geo-engineering” in a transparent way. The program defines geo-engineering as:

The deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s natural systems to counteract climate change

Essentially, there are two paths to take. One is to draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere in one way or another in order to reduce the ppm to or below the 350 that is is considered safe for humanity. According to C02 Now, an organization set up to call attention to C02 levels, the world was at 402,8 In June 2015. The other is to  block sunlight or what is technically called Solar Radiation Management.

Carbon can be sequestered or even removed by planting trees, producing bio char which locks carbon, capturing and storing carbon, growing algae and other plants in the world’s oceans and also adjusting the alkaline level of the sea so it absorbs more carbon.

MIT has a research center on carbon capture and sequestration which has a database of over 60 pilot programs being run at the level of specific power plants. To solve the problem on the planetary level the technology would have to be rolled out worldwide and machinery built to remove carbon from the air as well as “at source”.

We can limit the amount of sunlight hitting the earth by increasing its reflectiveness or albedo, putting something into space to block the sun, or putting aerosols into the upper atmosphere.

Conspiracy Theory

Dane Wigington runs a web site called geo engineering watch and maintains that there is a secret and enormous program already underway to spray aerosols into the atmosphere. Wingington claims that the United States and other countries are already spraying toxic metals into the atmosphere and has a number of photos which appear to show civilian aircraft engaged in atmospheric spraying.

Wigington blames the program for everything from global warming itself, to the draught in California, bee die offs and the increase in autism and alzheimer’s disease. His maintains that the global elite. western governments, and the media are all in on the plot.

Complex Systems

While I categorically reject Wigington’s ideas, the climate is a very complex system and any attempts to alter it could have unintended consequences. This is the rational for doing more research both into the technologies of geo-engineering and the institutional framework that will be required for the world to be able to use them if needed.