Saudi Arabia and Iran: A new Cold War

When the Saudi led coalition began combat operations in Yemen back in May, I wrote a post expressing concern that Yemen might be the spark of a general war between the Shia and Sunni in the Middle East. After the execution of a radical Shia cleric, Nimr Al-Nimr by the Saudi authorities just after the new year, it looked like  things might spin out of control.

In protest of the execution, crowds attacked Saudi Arabia’s consulate in the Irani city of Mashhad and burned the Embassy in Tehran. Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations and things might have gone further if Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khameni had not eventually condemned the attack as reported by the New York Times.

To make matters more complicated, the two countries square off on opposite sides of a number of conflicts in the region although, as always, things may not be what they seem or what is reported in the west.

Yemen

While Saudi Arabia clearly leads the 10,000 man coalition to restore Yemen’s president, Mansur Hadi to power, Iranian financial and logistical support of the Houthi may not be so extensive as has been widely reported. One theory is that the Houthis are being backed by Hadi’s predecessor, Abdullah Saleh who was forced out by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states as a result of the Arab Spring protests in 2011. What is true is that the Houthi are largely members of the Zaydi tradition which as discussed in an informative piece in the Yemen Times is a “school of thought within Shia Islam” and some financial support does appear to come from Iran.

Iraq

In Iraq the situation is also quite complex. Iran is very close to a number of Shia militia’s in Iraq as well as the Shia led government of Haider al-Abadi who according an article in to Al-monitor is more independent than his predecessor. During the war with Iraq Saudi Arabia was officially neutral although it apparently had friendly relations with Saddam Hussein until the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 went the kingdom reached out for American support.

ISIS

The Islamic State is, of course, Sunni led and has called for the murder of all Shia following the idea of takfiri as explained by Graeme Wood in the Atlantic. Reports of support of the Islamic State by wealthy Saudis are common although the Kingdom is a member of the the U.S. Backed coalition against the group although its military appears to be more focused on Yemen today. Iran is committed to destroying ISIS and its willingness to send its allies against it may be one of the reasons behind the nuclear accord signed with the United States and other Western powers last month.

Syria

The Saudi’s and Iranians are clearly on different sides in the Syrian civil war with Saudi as Jabhat al-Nusra, which are trying to overthrow Bashar Al-Assad and Iran being one of his government’s main supporters. A long time visitor to Syria told me over the weekend that he believes that Bashar would have probably opened up more to the initial protests in Syria during the Arab Spring if not for Iranian insistence that he deal harshly with the protesters sparking what would become the Syrian Civil War.

A new Cold War?

The conflict between the United States and Soviet Russia dominated much of the world’s geo-political agenda for more than 50 years and often took the form of the different countries supporting different sides in civil wars and regional conflicts around the world. Such proxy wars were devastating to the society’s involved but never managed to get too far out of control in global terms.

While there is talk about Iran and Saudi Arabia being in competition for regional domination, it seems to me that we are seeing a re-run of the U.S – Soviet struggle reproduced on a regional level. An armed uprising of Saudi Arabia’s Shia population, which makes up about 10-15% of the Kingdom’s 28 million people, appears unlikely as does all out war between the two countries. What does seem plausible is that their regional rivalry will continue making peace very difficult in the countries around them.