As the most unpleasant U.S. election in memory comes to an end, the outcome is largely dependent on who will get their people to the polls next Tuesday. Most analysts look at the map of electoral college votes, much as I did in a post back in July, and find it very difficult to imagine how Donald Trump might get the 270 votes he needs to win the election. What they say is that he has a “very narrow path” meaning he has to win all of the States that Mitt Romney won last time plus a number of the so called “Swing States” and this is looking increasingly difficult.
What’s up With the FBI?
In an unprecedented move, the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation sent a letter announcing that his organization was searching through a new batch of emails for evidence of criminal wrongdoing on the part of the democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. The ensuing media frenzy closed the gap for Donald Trump in a number of key states and appeared to give his failing campaign new momentum.
Today, CNN reported that the FBI had found nothing in the new emails but one as to wonder why the Director of the FBI would give out the information in the first place.
Get out the Vote!
Besides the fact that the U.S. election is really 50 separate contests that then get added up in the electoral college, the other key point is that many Americans simply do not vote. Over the last 10 years, in fact, the average turn out has been just 56.1 %.
This explains, in my view, the polarized political process as each side says whatever it think is it needs to in order to get its people out ot vote and there is little, if any, attempt at really discussing the key issues facing the country.
A related issue is that there are many people who will vote based on their understanding of a single issue which they feel is so important that any other consideration falls away.
In 2016 there are almost 219 million registered voters in the United States and about 40 million people have already cast their ballots via early voting which is allowed in 40 of the 50 States.
The democrats have put in place a massive get out the vote machine across the country and particular in swing states such as Florida and Ohio. They are also running targeted ads at millennials featuring Will Farrel andAmy Schumer which are being distributed through instagram and other outlets.
The basic premise of the ads is that voting is not only a civic duty but that there is a public record of people voting or not and if a specific person does not vote, then their friends and family will know about it.
The Trump campaign is still going on about the imaginary cases of voter fraud and how the election might be rigged.
As long as college educated whites, african americans, latinos, asian americans, arab americans and millennials go to the polls on Tuesday, Ms. Clinton will win the election. If those people stay home in record numbers and all of the Trump supporters come out to vote, then there may be a different outcome.
Good one, Mike. Like most people who have no skin in this game I look forward to Wednesday when it’ll all be over. The only problem is that the new president has to start campaigning almost immediately for reelection. How do we get off this merry-go-round?
Incredible is that certain people like Latinos vote Trump …. when I throw them out of the country we will see how happy they are ….
What a shocking surprise! All the polls and analysts were wrong including myself! In the end, Trump’s message of fear and hate got more people out to vote in the key states of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. We can only hope that many Trump voters did so because of specific issues they feel strongly about and did so despite the candidate himself!