In his slow and heavy voice, Al Gore was interviewed by the New York Times‘ star reporter, Tom Friedman in Washington D.C. last week. What is most compelling about the interview, which goes on for 38 minutes, was that Gore spoke without the slides and charts that normally characterises his talks.
Although he did not have a chance to cover them all during the interview, Gore poses three questions concerning the climate and our current carbon based economy:
- Must we change ?
- Can we change ?
- Will we change ?
Systemic Cause and Effect
On the first question the evidence is overwhelming that Climate Change is a huge problem. Gore points to case after case of enormous global problems from excessive draughts, wild fires, storms, flooding, the spread of tropical diseases such as the Zika virus and the geo-political issues that these events can cause. Gore also makes the point that temperatures around the world are going up and even the North Pole is showing alarming signs of warming.
One such issue is the Syrian Civil War and resulting refugee crisis that was sparked, at least in part, by the devastating draught that hit that country between 2006 and 2010.
One of the points that Gore makes well is that much of these impacts can not be discussed in terms of linear cause and effect. Linear cause and effect is when something happens which then causes something else to happen.
In a complex system, such as the world we live in and the climate, a number of different things happen and then other things happen caused by these things and the interaction between them. Thus it is hard to say that a specific storm, such as Hurricane Sandy, was caused by increased energy in the atmosphere but it is clear that it was a factor in the ferocity of the storm.
A Fourth Revolution
On the second and third question, Gore is categorical that sustainability is the next big thing and that there is still time to avoid the worst effects of the climate crisis. He talks about a sustainability revolution which is going to be even bigger than the agricultural, industrial and information revolutions which have come before.
In terms of the second question, he sees the costs of renewable energy coming down even faster than predicted just a few years ago and sees solar, batteries, and wind following in the steps of cell phones and for many parts of the world and will leapfrog our current energy paradigm.
His view is that sustainability will be as far reaching as the industrial revolution but happen at Internet Speed and that business and local city and state governments in both the developed and developing world will lead the way.
Business will be attracted by enormous cost savings, consumer interest and the need to offer millenials a working environment and culture that they perceive as making a positive difference. Gore sees the drops of share values in the fossil fuel companies as evidence that the stock market is now starting to discount the value of their carbon assets and that these valuations will collapse as the market sees that much of those assets will end up being left in the ground.
On this issue he believes that regardless of the current political climate mother nature will simply not allow us to continue and continue to throw natural disasters at us until we pay attention.
Trump needs to take care
For Al Gore, the world is at a critical inflection point, and while we will get there sooner or later, the next four years are important as the sooner the word stops emitting more carbon into the atmosphere the better our chances of limiting the damage or mitigating the effects.
His concern about the possibility of a Donald Trump administration is that Trump may finally appoint people to critical roles who will then push their own agenda’s forward and that he may not have the time or ability to control them.
If the United States does not continue to lead the world in the development of renewable energy, then China will and perhaps the millions of jobs and economic development that are needed in a post industrial society will take longer to flow to the U.S. Economy.
What about the new adviser Elon Musk? It could be good?