The U.N. Climate Summit: Geopolitical Games

Leo DiCaprio and Ban Ki-Moon
Leo DiCaprio and Ban Ki-Moon

100 world leaders reportedly attended last Tuesday’s session at the United Nations Climate Summit and were joined by Leonardo DiCaprio who has been named the UN’s Ambassador for Peace for the next year. Since 1998 Dicaprio, like his character Jay Gatsby, has earned respectability and praise by spending part of his fortune estimated at $220 million. While Gatsby, a fictional character, spent money on lavish parties, DiCaprio spends it on his foundation LDF which in turn funds different environmentalist organizations such as the World Wildlife Fund‘s program on Tigers and Oceana, which works on environmental regulations which focus on the oceans.

The New Mainstream

WGIII_AR5_Cover_webWhat is remarkable about the summit, put together by UN General Secretary, Ban Ki-Moon, is that not only did he get 120 our of 190 world leaders to show up (but not China’s Xi Jinping or India’s Narenda Modi) but more importantly got them all to say more or less the same thing. The bottom line is that increasingly, mainstream politicians are beginning to accept the IPCC‘s last report which essentially states that time is running out if the world is going to keep average temperature rise to within 2 degrees centigrade. When the report came out last April, I was skeptical that anything would really change but am beginning to be convinced that this time, some progress might be made.

The two most common themes in the different speeches which are well reflected in Secretary Ki-Moon’s summary of the event, is that climate change is real and happening now and that countries are beginning to act. U.S. President Barack Obama was eloquent, as always, and proudly pointed to the accomplishments of his administration which, to be fair, has done much more than his predecessors and even China’s Vice premier, Zhang Gaoli, said that China would reduce emissions by 40% over the next six years and “advance a revolution in energy production and consumption”.

For Ki-Moon, the purpose of the event was to raise awareness and establish some momentum for the next round of post-Kyoto talks which will be held in Lima in December and another almost a year later in Paris in 2015 which has the ambitious goal of putting together a global climate agreement.

YouTube Preview Image

Eco-Geopolitics: U.S. and China have to work together

The most interesting part of Obama’s speech were the last few minutes while he both acknowledged that the United States has a responsibility to act as the second largest contributor of greenhouse gasses but called on developing countries to do their share. Most analysis agreed that his words were directed at China.

Wang Yi
Wang Yi

A few days later at the UN General Assembly, China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, punched back at Obama and said that the United Nations charter was about countries being equals and respecting each other’s sovereign right to the pursuit of economic and social development without interference.

The main reason given by the administration of George H. W. Bush (father) not to sign Kyoto back in 1992 was that it did not require China and other emerging markets to control emissions and that they would be the largest emitters of carbon and other gasses in the future. While at the time the argument seemed spurious, the fact is that China has now overtaken the US and without both of these nations working together, any hope of Lima and Paris is destined to fail.

US Congress Republican Majority
US Congress Republican Majority

The issue is that the link between access to relatively inexpensive energy and economic growth is well established and while China could switch to a low carbon future as discussed last April, it is not clear that it will, in fact do so and in the United States, the Republican Congress will continue to fight president Obama every step of the way to a new agreement.

One big question is are we, like Di Caprio’s other character, Jack Dawson, destined to perish on our own Titanic or can we figure out how to keep the ship afloat? Another, poised by economist Bjorn Lomborg , is if climate change really is the most important issue facing humanity today?